The Electoral Consequences of Sudden Exogenous Shocks: Psychological, Socioeconomic, and Institutional Pathways Influencing Voting Behavior

Abstract

Sudden external shocks such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks, pandemics, and economic crises profoundly disrupt political equilibria and influence voting behavior through complex psychological, socioeconomic, and institutional mechanisms. These events introduce exogenous variation that reshapes issue salience, voter emotions, and party competition, often triggering immediate shifts in electoral participation and preferences. Psychological responses, including trauma, risk perception, and social identity dynamics, interact with socioeconomic factors like resource disruption, displacement, and community resilience to mediate political engagement. Institutional quality, government accountability, media coverage, and communication environments further condition how shocks translate into electoral outcomes, affecting incumbent support, partisan alignment, and the emergence of new political actors. Temporal and spatial dimensions influence the persistence and diffusion of behavioral changes, with evidence of intergenerational transmission and cumulative effects from repeated shocks. The interplay of pre-existing social capital, demographic variables, and governance structures shapes heterogeneous responses across regions and regimes. These insights highlight the challenges and opportunities for democratic institutions to adapt and maintain legitimacy amid crises, emphasizing the importance of transparent policy design, effective crisis management, and inclusive political representation in sustaining resilient democratic systems.