i. I I Feed Grain Production and Utilization Estimates for Alabama by the Year 2000 Circular 303 June 1990 Alabama Agricultural Experiment Station Auburn University Lowell T. Frobish, Director Auburn University, Alabama FOREWORD Agricultural experiment stations in Alabama and in the Southeastern United States have long been concerned with the deficit in grain production relative to use. This deficit has not only continued through the years, but has exhibited a long term trend upward due to continued declines in local production accompanied by continued increases in use. Most of this increased use has been due to the development of a large poultry industry, particularly in northern Alabama, northern Georgia, and Arkansas since the 1950's. As a result of this concern, there has been a series of southern regional research projects since the 1950's in which the Alabama Agricultural Experiment Station has participated. This circular is part of a series of both Alabama and southern regional publications contributing to these projects which report results of research concerning the continuously changing situation with respect to feed grain deficits, sources, transportation, storage, and policy. CONTENTS Page FOREWORD ............................... 2 INTRODUCTION ........................................... 5 Objectives ...................................... Method of Study ................................. PAST TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS FOR ALABAMA FEED GRAINS AND LIVESTOCK....................................... 6 6 7 Feed Grains..................................... Corn......................................... Soybeans...................................... Grain Sorghum ................................ Wheat ....................................... Oats......................................... Rye.......................................... Barley ....................................... Livestock and Poultry............................. Broilers ...................................... Hens and Pullets............................... Other Chickens ................................ Turkeys ...................................... Hogs and Pigs................................. Beef Cows .................................... Dairy Cows ................................... Cattle on Feed................................. Other Cattle................................... ............................ Sheep and Lambs.. Horses, Ponies, and Mules ....................... Grain Disappearance in Alabama .................... Corn......................................... .... .... .....--........... Soybeans... ...... Grain Sorghum ................................ Wheat ....................................... Oats......................................... Other Crops................................... Grain Consumption by Broilers 7 7 9 12 14 16 18 19 19 19 20 21 22 22 23 25 26 27 28 28 29 29 30 GRAIN DISAPPEARANCE AND UTILIZATION IN ALABAMA..29 31 31 31 32 32 32 ................ Livestock. ................... ....................... Hens and Pullets............................... Other Livestock................................ 32 33 PRODUCTION-UTILIZATION BALANCES ..................... 33 Ratio of Production to Disappearance ............... 33 Corn.............................33 Soybeans.................................33 Grain Sorghum .......................... 34 Wheat ................ ...................... 34 Oats...................................... 34 Other Grains ................... ............ 34 Ratio of Production to Consumption by Livestock ....... 35 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ............................ REFERENCES............................. APPENDIX TABLES ...................................... 35 37 39 FIRST PRINTING 3.5M, JUNE 1990. Informationcontainedherein is availableto all persons without regardto race, color, sex, or national origin. Feed Grain Production and Utilization Estimates for Alabama by the Year 2000 Rupert Hopkinson and J.L. Stallings INTRODUCTION of feed grains in Alabama has increased rapidly since the 1970's. Further increases are likely to occur if present trends continue. Though there has been a decline in the production of some classes of livestock in Alabama in recent years, consumption of feed grains has increased overall due primarily to the increase in broiler production since 1960. Poultry numbers in Alabama have increased by over 265 percent, from 187 million head in 1960 to 683 million in 1987. At the same time, production of corn, which comprises a large portion of poultry feed, fell by 59 percent. The production of some minor feed grains has increased, but the general situation in the State shows a decline in total production of all feed grains. Alabama, as it has been for some time, remains a net importer of feed grains. Imports from other states have been increasing since the 1960's. Also, conditions affecting production and utilization of feed grains in Alabama have changed dramatically over time, making earlier projections obsolete. New projections are, therefore, needed to reflect these changing conditions. 'Former Graduate Research Assistant and Associate Professor, respectively, of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology. CONSUMPTION [5] Objectives The objectives of this study were to: 1. Estimate the present feed grain production and utilization by livestock and other users in Alabama. 2. Project production of feed grains and their utilization by 11 classes of livestock and by other users in Alabama to the year 2000. 3. Compute production and utilization balances of feed grains in Alabama for 1987 and project the balance for the year 2000. Method of Study For feed grains, projections were made of acres harvested, yield, production, and percent of U.S. production to 1999. In the case of livestock and poultry, projections were made of Alabama's production or numbers and percent of U.S. production to the year 2000. Time series data used in the projection were generally for the period 1960 to 1988, except for some classes of livestock for which data were only available from 1965. Estimates were made using graphic projections of acres harvested, yield, production, and percent of U.S. production, each regressed on time. The projections were aided by five functional forms of equations 2 . Feed grain consumption per animal, which was used to determine feed grain use, was estimated for Alabama by modification of U.S. disappearance per animal in each livestock class as published by the USDA and other secondary data. The data were modified for Alabama through consultation with Cooperative Extension Service and Agricultural Experiment Station experts in the fields of their various subject matter. An estimated average annual grain consumption for each unit of each class of livestock was then multiplied by the 1987 and the projected year 2000 numbers of the particular class of livestock to compute an estimate of the quantities of the seven feed grains needed for livestock in 1987 and by the year 2000. Similar estimates and projections for 1987 and for the year 2000 for human food, pet food, and other uses of grains were included using data obtained from secondary sources. Estimates of the surplus or deficit for Alabama for 1987 and in the year 2000 were determined by subtracting the quantities of each feed grain consumed or used in the State from the quantity of each feed grain produced. 'For more details on the functional forms and statistical estimation, see "Feed-Grain Production and Utilization Estimates for Alabama by the Year 2000," an unpublished Auburn University M.S. thesis by Rupert Hopkinson. [6] PAST TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS FOR ALABAMA FEED GRAINS AND LIVESTOCK Feed Grains To compare present and future use of feed grains, acres harvested, yield, and production were projected to the year 1999. This is because feed grain production in this year is most of what will be consumed or used in the year 2000. These data are reported in appendix tables 1-5. Corn Even though increasingly erratic, yield per harvested acre of corn in Alabama has approximately doubled from an average of 31.5 bushels for the first 5 years of the 1960's to an average of 62.5 bushels for the last 5 years of the data inthe 1980's, figure 1. The record average yield of 75 bushels was in 1985. This is far below average state yields of over 100 bushels in recent years in some Corn Belt States. Corn yields, bu./harvested acre I 80 (71.4) Ca 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year FIG. 1. Corn: yields, Alabama, 1960-88, with projection to 1999. [7] While yields have been increasing, there has been a dramatic decline in harvested acres in Alabama, figure 2. In 1960, 1.7 million acres were harvested, but that amount fell to 170,000 by 1988. Projections for further decline are highly reliable. Estimates in this study indicate only 140,000 acres harvested by the year 1999. Corn harvested, thou. acres 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 .2000 FIG. 2. Corn: acres harvested, Alabama, 1960-88, with projection to 1999. As a result of declining acreage, corn production in Alabama has generally been declining since the late 1960's in spite of increasing yields, figure 3. In 1988, production was at a low of 7,480,000 bushels. This has made it necessary to import an increasing amount of corn if current livestock and other uses are to be sustained. While the general level of Alabama corn prices is important to corn and livestock producers, the geographical price differentials between Alabama and the Corn Belt are even more important since corn can be moved from lower priced surplus areas to higher priced deficit areas. Alabama is a deficit area and the local price per bushel of corn has often been as much as $0.30 more than in some Corn Belt States in the past (23). In 1983, the average price of corn was $3.55 in Alabama, while it was $0.29, $0.25, and $0.44 less in Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa, respectively. This differential is usually enough to cover the transportation costs to Alabama. [8] million bu. nroduction, Corn production million bu. Corn 50 40 30 20 (10) 10 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIG. 3. Corn: production, Alabama, 1960-88, with projection to 1999. In this study, Alabama was projected to produce only 10 million bushels of corn by 1999. This is far less than projected needs if present trends in use continue. Also, Alabama's percentage of U.S. production, always small, is getting even smaller, and is expected to decrease further as the Corn Belt States remain productive in corn and Alabama's production declines. Soybeans Alabama soybean yields from 1960 to 1988 have indicated no significant trend, figure 4. Yields averaged 23 bushels per harvested acre during the whole period, and the same is projected for 1999. Research is underway at the Alabama Agricultural Experiment Station and elsewhere which may hold promise for a breakthrough in yields but, at the moment, nothing but a horizontal trend can be projected. Future soybean production, then, is dependent primarily on acres harvested. Acres harvested increased dramatically from 135,000 acres in 1960 to a peak of 2.15 million acres in 1979, after which the decline was [9] Soybean yields, bu./harvested acre 301 20 15 10 5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIG. 4. Soybeans: yields, Alabama, 1960-88, with projection to 1999. Soybeans harvested, thou. acres 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 (560) 500 50 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIG. 5. Soybeans: acres harvested, Alabama, 1960-88, with projection to 1999. [10] just as dramatic, falling to 480,000 in 1987, figure 5. Acres harvested increased again in 1988 and, although predictions are difficult and highly uncertain, indications are that there will continue to be a small increase to about 560,000 acres by 1999. Soybean production, although more erratic due to year to year yield fluctuations, generally follows the pattern of acres harvested in spite of an unusual year in 1980, figure 6. Unlike corn production, which has been in general decline with an increasing deficit over many years, there was a surplus of soybean production versus use in some years in the late 1970's and early 1980's. However, with the recent decline in acreage and production, soybeans also are a deficit grain in Alabama, and this deficit is increasing due to continued increase in use by an expanding poultry industry and declining production. This deficit is expected to continue to the turn of the century unless dramatic increases in yields and/or increases in acreage planted occurs, and this is not indicated by these projections. Much of the increase in soybean acreage in the late 1970's and the early 1980's was at the expense of corn acreage, although some was the result of conversion of pasture acreage. Compared with FIG. 6. Soybeans: production, Alabama, 1960-88, with projection to 1999. [11] corn, Alabama has some advantages over the Corn Belt in producing soybeans. These include a long growing season, greater adaptability to poor soils, relatively low land values, and convenient and favorable markets, with prices higher than the U.S. average. In spite of this, soybean production has been declining from its last peak in 1982 when it was 50 million bushels to only 7.92 million bushels in 1987. This is partly because the number of farms and land devoted to row crops are, in general, declining. Projections indicate that soybean production will level off and average about its 1986-88 level for the rest of the 1990's, with a possible slight increase to 12.88 million bushels by 1999. However, because of the potential for dramatic increases, as witnessed in the past, this projection is not considered highly reliable. However, it is likely that Alabama will produce far less than the needs for crushing in the State by 1999, making continued imports of soybeans almost inevitable. Grain Sorghum Throughout the period since 1960, yields of grain sorghum have generally been increasing, from 24 bushels per harvested acre in 1960 Grain sorghum, bu./harvested acre 60 50 4C 30 1.0 -0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIG. 7. Grain sorghum: yields, Alabama, 1960-88, with projection to 1999. [12] to 55 bushels in 1985, figure 7. While yields have been erratic in the past 3 years, they are still projected to continue a long term trend to about 50 bushels by 1999. Harvested acres of grain sorghum fell as low as 7,000 acres in the mid-1960's, but have had two dramatic peaks since then, one small peak in 1971 and a large one in 1985, figure 8. The existence Grain sorghum harvested, thou. acres 250 200 150 100 (52) 50 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIG. 8. Grain sorghum: acres harvested, Alabama, 1960-88, with projection to 1999. of these peaks greatly complicates projections. Harvested acreage has declined since 1985 but, in spite of the potential for erratic increases, it is projected to be only 52,000 acres by 1999. In making such a projection, it was assumed that the two peaks were aberrations and projections were made excluding some of these years. Grain sorghum production generally follows the erratic pattern of acreage harvested with some increase over time due to increased yields, figure 9. Projections were made with the same assumptions as for acres. [13] Grain sorghum production, million bu. 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year FIG. 9. Grain sorghum: production, Alabama, 1960-88, with projection to 1999. Wheat Wheat yields have fluctuated between 23 and 30 bushels per harvested acre during the period from 1960 to 1980, after which yields generally increased but were more erratic, figure 10. Overall, yields have averaged just over 28 bushels per harvested acre for the period since 1960. Yields fell from a 1981 high of 44 bushels to 31 bushels in 1987 but peaked again at 43 bushels in 1988. Projections indicate a generally increasing trend in yields to 37 bushels by 1999. After many years of relatively stable acreage, wheat acreage jumped to a high of 725,000 in 1982 from 90,000 in 1978, with similar accompanying changes in production, figures 11 and 12. From 1960 to 1978, wheat acreage varied only slightly, fluctuating around 100,000 acres with a slight upward trend. There was an equally dramatic drop in acreage over a 5-year period from the 1982 peak year to 170,000 acres in 1987. Part of the reason for these peak years in wheat was the significant increase in soybean acreage harvested in these years with wheat serving as a double crop with soybeans. The years 1978 through 1987 were [14] Wheat yields, bu./harvested acre 50 40 30 20 10 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIG. 10. Wheat: yields, Alabama, 1960-88, with projection to 1999. Wheat harvested, thou, acres 800 600 400 200 0 195 19 95 20 Year FIG. 11. Wheat: acres harvested, Alabama, 1960-88, with projection to 1999. [15] Wheat production, million bu. 30 25 20 15 (10) 10 5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIG. 12. Wheat: production, Alabama, 1960-88, with projection to 1999. considered aberrations and were excluded in projecting to 1999. With this assumption, the long-run trend indicates a modest rise in projected acreage and production from the recent years of 1987-88 to 270,000 acres harvested by 1999. Production should follow the same general pattern as acreage harvested with the years 1978-87 considered unusual, figure 12. With this assumption, production of wheat is projected at 10 million bushels in Alabama by 1999. Oats As with wheat, oat yields have also been erratic since 1980, but with a gradual long-term increase, figure 13. It is projected that by 1999 yield per harvested acre will be 50 bushels. There was a steep drop of acreage of oats, from 85,000 acres in 1960 to 40,000 in 1963, figure 14. Since 1963, the long-run trend has been slightly downward with a sharp drop since 1985. In spite of the recent drop, oat acreage is projected at 30,000 by 1999. This decline in recent years has resulted in more oats being imported from the Midwest, especially to supply an increasing population of equines in Alabama. Production, as with acreage harvested, has followed [16] Oat yields, bu./harvested acre 70 60 (50) 50 40 30 20 10 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIG. 13. Oats: yields, Alabama, 1960-88, with projection to 1999. Oats harvested, thou. acres Year FIG. 14. Oats: acres harvested, Alabama, 1960-88, with projection to 1999. [171 a similar but more erratic pattern due to a compounding of yield and acreage fluctuation, figure 15. As with acreage, in spite of recent drops since 1986, production is projected at 1.5 million bushels by 1999. Oat production, thou. bushels 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 (1,500) 1,500 1,000 500 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIG. 15. Oats: production, Alabama, 1960-88, with projection to 1999. Rye Rye is relatively unimportant as a feed grain in Alabama and data are not reported by the Alabama Agricultural Statistics Service. This makes projection difficult. However, every 5 years the Census of Agriculture reports acres harvested, yield, and production for Alabama. The latest figures for 1987 put acres harvested at 3,816 and yield at 22.4 bushels per acre, for a total State production of only 85,659 bushels. While no tables and figures are presented for rye, projections of 5,000 acres harvested, a yield of 22 bushels per acre, and a production of 110,000 bushels were made for 1999 from limited data. Rye production will be combined with other minor feed grains, such as barley, in the estimates of production-utilization balances. It is [181 relatively unimportant as a feed grain in Alabama and will not affect these balances significantly.. Barley Barley, like rye, is insignificant as a feed grain in Alabama. Data are reported by the Census of Agriculture every 5 years as with rye. According to the last Census report for barley in 1987, acres harvested were 665, yield 46.4 bushels per harvested acre, and production 30,823 bushels. Tables and figures are not presented for this crop, but the projections made to 1999 from limited data place acres harvested at 800, yield at 43.3 bushels, and production at 34,640 bushels. As with rye, barley is combined with other minor feed grains in later analyses, and is relatively unimportant. Livestock and Poultry To facilitate the calculation of feed grain production-utilization balances by the year 2000 numbers or production of 11 classes of grain-consuming livestock were projected to that year. These data are reported in appendix tables 6-8. Livestock and poultry are the main users of feed grains. In some cases, production is given in terms of numbers raised. In other cases, numbers on hand January 1 were used because of the way data for some classes of livestock are recorded. For example, broilers, for which several batches per year are raised, are more reasonably reported as numbers raised. Dairy cow numbers, which remain relatively constant throughout the year, are reported as numbers on hand January 1. 'Rations,' used later to determine consumption of feed grains from these data, take into account these differences in methods of reporting. Therefore, while they may be called 'rations' for discussion purposes, the figures really represent 'disappearance' per animal per unit reported for calculation purposes and do not necessarily correspond to an actual ration fed. Broilers In the poultry class, broilers are the biggest users of feed grains in Alabama. Over a 27-year period, production of broilers rose 277 percent, from 176.7 million head in 1960 to 666.5 million in 1987, [19] figure 16. Production has increased in all but 4 years, when the decreases were quite small. The upward trend of the past 5 years has been continuing. Further increases are expected, with projections of 780 million head by the year 2000. This increased production of broilers in Alabama has improved the State's percentage of U.S. production, which has risen steadily from 9.8 percent in 1960 to 13.3 percent in 1987. Broilers, it will be shown later, are the main cause of a projected increased deficit in feed grains, especially corn and soybeans, by the year 2000. Broilers produced, millions 900 800 (780) 700 600 500 400 300 200 1 I lIIl i f 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIG. 16. Broilers: production, Alabama, 1960-88, with projection to 2000. Hens and Pullets These are birds of laying age and egg-producing birds. They were put into a separate category to facilitate computation of feed consumption, as the ration per bird is different from that of broilers. The broiler is sold after a few weeks, while the hen or pullet is kept all year and will have higher feed disappearance per unit over a year. Hens and pullets will appear in the category 'other chickens,' along with roosters and farm flocks, until they reach laying age. [201 Hens and pullets steadily increased in numbers from 1960 to 1970, after which there was a general leveling off until 1980, figure 17. The decline since 1980 is not confined to Alabama, but has been general throughout the United States. Therefore, in spite of the decline in numbers in the 1980's, Alabama's share of U.S. production has remained relatively stable. Hens and pullets, millions 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 (11.92) 2 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIG. 17. Hens and pullets: on hand Jan. 1, Alabama, 1960-88, with projection to 2000. Other Chickens These are mostly the replacement birds for the laying flock, but they also include farm flocks for home consumption which are of decreasing importance. Although erratic from year to year, their numbers have had a relatively constant trend over the years, figure 18. Only 986,000 more were on hand in 1987 than the 3.9 million in 1960. While there were decreases in numbers in recent years, the long-run trend indicates a projection of about 6 million birds by the year 2000. [21] Other chickens, millions 10 8 (6) 6 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 2 1960 FIG. 18. Other chickens: on hand Jan. 1, Alabama, 1960-87, with projection to 2000. Turkeys Data on turkey numbers in Alabama have been reported only at sporadic intervals. These enterprises are relatively unimportant as far as feed grain use is concerned. Their numbers in Alabama have decreased over the years from about 39,000 in 1969 to 23,000 in 1987. Turkeys as an industry in Alabama has clearly declined, and production is estimated at only 23,000 by the year 2000. Hogs and Pigs The 'pig crop' is defined as a fall and winter crop. In this publication, 'pig crop' refers to total numbers sold from these two periods and will include the previous year's fall crop plus the present year's spring crop. The long-run trend for the pig crop in Alabama has been a decline, with upward and downward swings in the 'hog cycle' about every 5 years since 1960, figure 19. Numbers are projected as downward at 400,000 head by the year 2000 on a longrun trend basis. It is particularly important to note that specific [22] numbers of hogs by the year 2000 will depend on the stage of the hog cycle, which is difficult to predict precisely. Alabama's share of the U.S. pig crop is also falling. It has fallen below 1 percent since 1983 and is expected to continue to decline. Hogs and pigs, thou. head 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 (400) 00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIG. 19. Hogs and pigs: pig crop, Alabama, 1965-87, with projection to 2000. Beef Cows For beef cows, as for dairy cows and other cattle, comparable data for this study were available only from 1965 because of a definition change at that time. Since 1970, beef cow numbers in Alabama have rapidly increased, reaching an all time high in 1976, figure 20. Numbers at that time were 1.3 million head, but have since fallen, reflecting the traditional 16- to 17-year cycle. Numbers reached a low in 1980, but now appear to have stabilized somewhat, fluctuating just under 1 million head. This trend has continued for the past 9 years, with the lowest level being 862,000 head. As with hogs, it is not possible to specifically project the stage of the long run 'cattle cycle' by the year 2000; however, long-term projections are set at 1 million head by then, even though the short-run figure will depend on the stage of the cycle which is difficult to project. [23] Alabama's share of U.S. production has been fairly steady throughout the 1965-88 period, between 2.4 and 3 percent. This is expected to continue. Beef cows, thou. head 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 (1,000) 1,000 900 800 700 60 0 1 1 1965 1 1 1 1970 . 1 1 1975 .1 1 1980 ,1 11 1 . , , , 1 1990 1995 1985 . 2000 Year FIG. 20. Beef cows: on hand Jan. 1, Alabama, 1965-87, with projection to 2000. Dairy Cows The decline in number of dairy cows in Alabama has been more dramatic than for any other class of livestock, and the trend is highly significant statistically. Over the period since 1965, production has decreased every year except 1972, when it remained at its 1971 level, figure 21. Predictions are that numbers will continue to decline, falling to 20,000 head by the year 2000. Alabama's percent of U.S. production was 1.13 percent in 1965, its highest for all years in the range of the data. As is the case with dairy cow numbers, this share is expected to continue to decline. [24] Dairy cows, thou. head 200 150 100 50 (20) 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Year 1990 1995 2000 FIG. 21. Dairy cows: on hand Jan. 1, Alabama, 1965-87, with projection to 2000. [25] Cattle on Feed Except for year-to-year fluctuations, numbers of cattle on feed in Alabama have shown no significant statistical trend either upward or downward, figure 22. A simple linear regression projected numbers at 35,000 head by the year 2000. Numbers reached 50,000 in 1987, but for most of the other years, they fluctuated between 33,000 and 40,000. Alabama's share of U.S. cattle on feed production has fluctuated, but has been generally between 3 and 5 percent. Cattle on feed, thou. head 60 50 40 (35) 30 20 - 10 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 195 190 195 20 FIG. 22. Cattle on feed: on hand Jan. 1, Alabama, 1960-87, with projection to 2000. Other Cattle 'Other cattle' is defined as the total number of cattle on hand January 1, less dairy cows, cattle on feed, and beef cows. These will include the calf crop and bulls. Number of head in this category in 1988 fell to 805,000 from 889,000 in 1965, figure 23. There was a peak period during the 1970's, however, when numbers reached over 1.4 million, but this appears to have been an aberration. In later years, numbers leveled of to the pre-1970 level, with the year 2000 estimate placed at 1.02 million head. [26] Other cattle have maintained a steady share of U.S. production, except in 1975 and 1976 when Alabama produced its highest numbers in this category during the 27-year period. The percentage of the U.S. total has generally been between 1.7 percent and 2 percent. Other cattle, thou. head 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100(1,020) 1,000 her cattle: on hand Jan..1, Alabama, 196587, with projection to 2000. 900[27] 800 700 600 500 .... 4001965 ,111, , i, 11 1970 1975 ,, l, I ,I i 1980 1985 Year FIG. 23. Other cattle: on hand Jan..1, Alabama, 1965-87, with projection to 2000. . , 1990 . 1995 I, I 2000 [27] Sheep and Lambs Sheep and lambs have declined from their 1960 high of 36,000 head, figure 24, The decline has been steady, but has leveled off at 4,000 head in 1978 and later years. Current estimates put the numbers for 1988 at 3,000 head. However, they are projected to be 4,000 by the year 2000. Sheep and lambs are relatively unimportant in determining feed grain use by the year 2000. Sheep and lambs, thou. head 40 30 20 10 - 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIG. 24. Sheep and lambs: on hand Jan. 1, 1960-87, with projection to 2000. Horses, Ponies, and Mules Recent data for horses, ponies, and mules are not readily available. However, estimated data through 1983 indicate that their numbers have been rising. This has been so since 1960 even though moderate decreases were estimated from 1968 to 1972. The popularity of horses, ponies, and mules as hobby animals and pets has not waned and the actual numbers, though difficult to estimate, are [28] expected to increase even further. Best estimates from sketchy data indicate about 200,000 head by the year 2000. They are important in any study of feed grain use because of the high percentage of oats in their rations which are mostly imported from out of state (25), and must be accounted for in any study of this nature. GRAIN DISAPPEARANCE AND UTILIZATION IN ALABAMA There are some terms which should be defined in this section. Grain 'disappearance' for Alabama means not only all livestock and nonlivestock uses within the State, but disappearance of grains shipped to other states and overseas. Grain 'utilization' for Alabama includes consumption by livestock plus grains processed for human food, pet food, and for other nonlivestock uses within Alabama. Grain 'consumption by livestock' is the main sub-category of grain utilization for Alabama and is the main focus of this publication. The term 'livestock' always includes poultry. Data on grain disappearance and utilization are recorded in appendix tables 9-16. Grain Disappearance in Alabama Total disappearance of all grains in Alabama, including livestock and nonlivestock uses and exports out of state and overseas, amounted to 227.8 million bushels in 1987. It is estimated that this figure will increase to 249.9 million bushels by the year 2000, about 10 percent or 22 million bushels over 1987. Corn accounted for 59 percent of total feed grain disappearance in 1987 and will account for an estimated 54.3 percent by the year 2000. Corn Corn is the most important feed grain in Alabama. Total disappearance for 1987 was 134.44 million bushels with an estimated .135.757 million bushels projected by the year 2000. Livestock consumption accounted for an estimated 119.6 million bushels, or 89 percent, of all corn disappearance in 1987. This amount is estimated to increase to 127.5 million by the year 2000. The poultry industry alone accounted for 96.2 million bushels in 1987, or over 80 percent of corn consumed by livestock. This share is projected to increase to 109.9 million bushels, or 86.2 percent, of the 127.5 million bushels of corn consumption by livestock by the year 2000. [29] Other grain-consuming livestock, except hogs, are relatively unimportant in terms of disappearance when compared with poultry. Other livestock accounted for only 15.7 million bushels, or 13 percent, of all livestock consumption in 1987. However, their future consumption of corn is expected to make up an even smaller percentage by the year 2000 as their numbers decline. Cattle on feed have the highest per head consumption of feed annually, 102 bushels. However, the numbers are low and it was estimated that they consumed only 2.8 percent of the corn used in Alabama by livestock in 1987. The remaining classes of livestock also consumed below 2.5 percent, a trend that is expected to continue to the year 2000. Other uses of corn (seed, processing, shipment to ports and to other states) accounted for 14.887 million bushels in 1987. The amount is expected to fall to 8.228 million bushels as the State continues to produce less corn locally. Local corn is an important source shipped out of Port of Mobile from the southern half of the State. Soybeans The total disappearance of soybeans crushed was 60.418 million bushels-equivalent in 1987 and is estimated to increase to 75.646 million bushels by the year 2000. Of these amounts, 44.090 million bushels of all soybeans were consumed by livestock in 1987, with 49.165 million bushels expected to be needed by the year 2000. As with corn, the poultry industry was the largest user, with 39.461 million bushels, or 89.5 percent, of the soybeans consumed by livestock in 1987. This is 65.3 percent of total disappearance. The poultry industry is expected to account for an even larger share of soybeans consumed by livestock in the year 2000. The industry is expected to consume 92.23 percent, or 45.389 million of a total of a 49.165 million-bushel disappearance by livestock. Aside from poultry, consumption of soybeans by other livestock is relatively unimportant, as the remaining seven classes consume less than 7 percent of that consumed by livestock. Other nonlivestock disappearance of soybeans accounted for 16.3 million bushels, or 27 percent, of total disappearance in 1987, but is expected to increase to 26.481 million bushels, or 35 percent, of total disappearance by the year 2000. Expectations are for a modest increase in soybean production in Alabama, along with more shipments from other states for processing and more meal shipped to other surrounding states. [30] Grain Sorghum In 1987, total disappearance of grain sorghum was 5.543 million bushels, and it is expected to increase to about 5.730 million bushels by the year 2000. A total of 5.396 million bushels was consumed by livestock in 1987 for 97 percent of total disappearance. Unlike corn and soybeans, little grain sorghum is shipped to ports and to other states. Also, there is virtually no nonfeed use for grain sorghum as there is for corn. Consumption by poultry accounted for 49 percent, or 2.643 million bushels of grain sorghum consumption by livestock. Broilers were the primary users, with 2.5 million bushels, or 95 percent, of poultry consumption. Cattle on feed accounted for the highest annual per head consumption in a ration. Total consumption of grain sorghum was about 21 percent of the amount consumed by livestock. The remaining livestock classes accounted for less than 7 percent of the total consumption. Wheat Total disappearance of wheat for 1987 amounted to 10.502 million bushels and is estimated at 15.729 million for the year 2000. The trend remains similar to that for other feed grains in that the poultry category continues to dominate wheat consumption by livestock. In 1987, poultry enterprises used 4.473 million bushels, or 82 percent, of the wheat used by livestock in Alabama. However, this is only 43 percent of total disappearance. This is because wheat is not primarily a feed grain, as is corn, and other nonfeed uses play a greater role. More wheat is expected to be utilized by the year 2000, but the general pattern of use is expected to be similar to 1987. Oats Disappearance for 1987 was 15.874 million bushels and is estimated to be 16.082 million bushels by the year 2000. Horses and mules, with the highest per head consumption of this feed grain, are the main consumers. In 1987, they utilized 12.187 million bushels, or 81 percent, of all oats consumed by livestock. Hens and pullets were next with 1.726 million bushels, or 11 percent. Total livestock consumption in 1987 was 15.114 million, or 95 percent, of total disappearance. There is relatively little nonfeed use for oats [31] in Alabama. Consumption by livestock is expected to increase slightlyto 15.147 million by the year 2000, but livestock's share in total disappearance is expected to remain about the same. Other Crops Barley and rye are relatively unimportant as feed grains in Alabama and are not treated separately by use. Figures regarding their disappearance for 1987 and 2000 are estimated and included under other crops in appendix tables 15 and 16. In actual practice, minor amounts of such grain products as screenings and corn gluten are also used for food. Also, protein used in animal feed may come from such diverse sources as cottonseed meal, fish meal, and meat scraps, among other sources, which complicates analysis because these sources can be substitutes for soybean meal and for the major grains studied. Grain Consumption by Livestock Broilers Consumption of feed grains by broilers is determined by one growout period, instead of annually as with most other grainconsuming livestock. Broilers in Alabama were estimated to have consumed about 0.19 bushel of feed grains per head in 1987, with corn comprising about two-thirds of the ration or 0.12 bushel. In 1987, consumption of feed grains by broilers accounted for an estimated 123.548 million bushels of grains, or about 65 percent of the total grain consumption by livestock in Alabama. With the number of broilers rising, it is estimated that consumption will increase to 144.548 million bushels of all grains by the year 2000. This amount increases broilers' role in livestock feed grain consumption by about 6 percent, from 64.8 percent in 1987 to 70.75 by the year 2000. Hens and Pullets Hens and pullets consumed a total of 1.73 bushels of feed grains per head annually in 1987. Corn (1.12 bushels) and soybeans (0.34 bushel) make up 85 percent of the ration. The consumption rate for the year 2000 remains unchanged, but their numbers will give them a slightly greater share of total feed consumption in Alabama. [32] Other Livestock All other classes of livestock consumption made up only 25 percent of total feed grain consumption in Alabama in 1987, with none of the remaining nine classes rated as important. Horses and mules consumed an estimated 8.26 percent of all feed grains in 1987, largely because of the high use of oats in their diet. Percentages of the total feed consumed by other livestock in 1987 were: other chickens, 0.9 percent; turkeys, 0.01 percent; hogs and pigs, 6.87 percent; beef cows, 2.06 percent; dairy cows, 1.87 percent; cattle on feed, 2.72 percent; other cattle, 2.14 percent; and sheep and lambs, 0.01 percent. For the year 2000, the various classes of livestock show similar shares of total consumption in Alabama. PRODUCTION-UTILIZATION BALANCES Ratio of Production to Disappearance Also important is Alabama's total surplus or deficit of feed grains. Alabama produced only 15.09 percent of its total feed grain disappearance in 1987. Production as a percentage of total disappearance is estimated to decrease only slightly to 14.81 percent in 2000. This is a deficit of 212.5 million bushels of feed grains by the year 2000, compared with 193.5 million bushels in 1987 to make up the shortfall in Alabama production. Detailed data are recorded in appendix tables 17 and 18. Corn In 1987, Alabama needed 116.4 million bushels of corn more than it produced to satisfy all disappearance of corn in the State. Alabama corn production represented only 13.39 percent of this figure in 1987. The deficit is estimated to be even higher by the year 2000, when about 125.8 million bushels will be needed. For the year 2000, production is expected to be only 7.37 percent of corn disappearance. In Alabama, the poultry industry is expected to continue to expand while local production of its main feed ingredient, corn, is expected to decline. Soybeans Disappearance of soybeans in 1987 was 60.4 million bushels, while only 7.9 million bushels were produced. This represented a deficit [33] of 52.5 million bushels, which makes production only about 13 percent of total disappearance for 1987. Disappearance is expected to increase by the year 2000, but the projected rise in soybean production will improve the production-disappearance balance to 17 percent. Grain Sorghum The 1987 deficit for grain sorghum is not as large as the deficit for other grains. Grain sorghum recorded a deficit of 3.6 million bushels in 1987 when production was 34.64 percent of all disappearance. Production as a percentage of disappearance is expected to increase by the year 2000 to 45.37 percent, when the deficit is expected to be down slightly to 3.1 million bushels. Wheat Wheat is the only feed grain for which production was more than 50 percent of all disappearance in 1987. This percentage is expected to improve to 63.58 percent by the year 2000. While production as a percentage of utilization by livestock has increased, it has not kept pace with the total disappearance. The deficit of 5.2 million bushels in 1987 is expected to increase slightly to 5.7 million bushels by the year 2000. Oats The total deficit of oats for 1987 was 14.623 million bushels and is estimated to be about the same, 14.582 million bushels, in the year 2000. Total usage is projected to be more in 2000 than in 1987, but the projected increase in production will raise local production as a share of disappearance from 7.87 percent in 1987 to 9.32 percent by 2000. In any case, oats will remain a minor grain in the total feed grain picture. Other Grains Other grains, mainly barley and rye, do not play important roles in the production-utilization balance when compared with the other feed grains. They do, however, contribute in a minor way to the deficit in Alabama. Just over 31,000 bushels of other grain were produced in 1987, which contributed a meager 2.92 percent of total usage. Production is estimated to increase to 35,000 in 2000, but [34] its share of utilization will be equally low, 3.82 percent. However, these grains will make little difference in the total feed grain picture. Ratio of Production to Consumption by Livestock Overall, in 1987, Alabama produced only 18.03 percent of the feed grains needed to satisfy its livestock consumption requirements. This percentage is estimated to remain virtually unchanged at 18.1 percent for the year 2000. By specific crops, wheat production was 96 percent of consumption in 1987. By the year 2000, production is expected to exceed consumption. Grain sorghum production, as a percentage of consumption, was 36 percent in 1987. For the other grains, less than 20 percent of what was needed for consumption in 1987 was produced. The production-utilization balance for all grains except corn is generally expected to improve by the year 2000. However, the corn production-utilization balance is projected to fall from its 1987 percentage of 15.06 percent to 7.84 percent by the year 2000. This major feed grain outweighs all others in importance. Production as a percent of utilization for oats will increase by about 1 percent by the year 2000, but it will make little difference overall. Barley and rye were excluded from this analysis and are included as 'other grains' because of their minor importance. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Total disappearance of all feed grains in Alabama in 1987 was 227.8 million bushels and is expected to increase to 249.9 million bushels by the year 2000. Corn, which comprised 134.4 million bushels, or 59 percent, of all feed grain use in Alabama in 1987, is declining in acreage harvested and production, while use is expected to increase to 135.8 million bushels by the year 2000. At the same time that Alabama corn production is decreasing, an increasing poultry industry is demanding more and more corn, which is the principal ingredient in poultry feed. Consumption of corn by livestock and poultry accounted for 119.6 million bushels, or 89 percent, of the total disappearance of corn in 1987 and is expected to rise to 127.5 million bushels by the year 2000. The poultry industry accounted for 72 percent of all corn used in 1987 and is expected to account for 81 percent by the year 2000. Imports of corn from Corn Belt States, primarily Illinois, Indiana, [35] and Iowa, have been increasing recently due to the increasing needs along with more favorable yields in these states and a favorable differential in prices. While soybean production exceeded crushing in Alabama in the late 1970's and early 1980's, crushing since then has increasingly been exceeding production. This has resulted in increased imports from other states, a trend which is expected to continue. By 1987, production in the State had fallen to 7.920 million bushels, while total disappearance was 60.418 million bushels. By the year 2000, production is estimated at 12.880 million bushels, with a total disappearance of 75.646 million bushels. Some of this disappearance will continue to be exported to other states and overseas, but 49.165 million bushels are expected to be needed by Alabama's livestock and poultry, almost four times the expected production. Broilers, which consumed 69.2 percent of all feed grains used by livestock and poultry in Alabama in 1978 (mostly corn), have been increasing steadily since 1960 and are projected to consume about 70 percent by the year 2000. The second largest users of feed grains, hens and pullets, declined in the early 1980's, but have now leveled off and will continue to be large users of feed grains. Use of feed grains by beef cows will continue at about present levels. Hogs, pigs, and dairy cows were important users of feed grains in the past, but this use has been declining and will continue to decline. All other grain-consuming poultry and livestock are relatively unimportant as present and future consumers of feed grains. [36] REFERENCES (1) ALABAMA AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE. 1984-87. Alabama Agricultural Statistics. Montgomery, Ala. (2) . 1960-88. Farm Facts. Montgomery, Ala. (3) ASKARI, H. AND J.T. CUMMINGS. 1976. Agriculture Supply Response: A Survey of Econometric Evidence. Preager Press, New York, N.Y. (4) BALDWIN, DEAN E. AND DONALD W. LARSON. 1981. Projected Production of Grains and Oil Seeds, and Consumption by Livestock in Ohio for 1990 and 2000. AERS Report -1, Ohio Agr. Res. and Dev. Center, Wooter, Ohio. (5) BEDRI, OSMAN A.K. 1979. Feed Grain Production and Utilization Balances for Alabama, Past, Present and Future. M.S. thesis, Auburn Univ. (6) CASSIDY, H.J. 1981. Using Econometrics: A Beginner's Guide. Preston Publ. Co., Virginia. (7) CAVANAUGH, J.E. AND J.L. STALLINGS. 1972. The Feed Grain Market for Alabama. Ala. Agr. Expr. Sta. Bull. 425. (8) HEADLEY, LEO M. AND J.L. STALLINGS. 1980. Grain Firms and Grain 1985, Movements in Alabama in 1977. Ala. Agr. Expr. Sta. Bull. 523. (9) HILL, LOWELL D. 1982. U.S. Corn Industry. Agr. Econ. Rep. 479, Washington D.C. (10) , MACK N. LEATH AND STEPHEN W. FULLER. 1981. Sorghum Movements in the United States. Bull. 765, Univ. of Ill. at Urbana-Champaign. (11) . 1981. Soybeans Movements in the United States. Bull. 766, Univ. of Ill. at Urbana-Champaign. (12) . 1981. Wheat Movements in the United States. Bull. 767, Univ. of Ill. at Urbana-Champaign. (13) (14) . 1981. Corn Movements in the United States. Bull. 768, Univ. of Ill. at Urbana-Champaign. . 1981. Oats Movements in the United States. Bull. (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) 769, Univ. of Ill. at Urbana-Champaign. . 1981. Barley and Rye Movements in the United States. Bull. 770, Univ. of Ill. at Urbana-Champaign. HOPKINSON, RUPERT. 1989. Feed-Grain Production and Utilization Estimates for Alabama by the Year 2000. M. S. thesis, Auburn Univ. HURST, J.R. AND M. WHITE. 1968. Feed Grain Situation in Alabama 1953-1966 and Projections to 1975. Ala. Agr. Expr. Sta. Bull. 379. JOHNSON, ARON C. et al. 1980. Econometrics, Basic and Applied. MacMillan Publ. Co., New York, N.Y. KMENTA, JAN. 1971. Elements of Econometrics. MacMillan Publ. Co., New York, N.Y. (20) LAZARUS, SHERYL S., LOWELL D. HILL, AND STANLEY R. THOMPSON. 1980. Grain Production and Utilization in the North, Central and Southern States with Projections for 1990 and 2000. SCS. Bull. 245. (21) MIRER, THAD W. 1988. Economic Statistics and Econometrics. MacMillan Publ. Co., New York, N.Y. (22) National Conference of Grain Marketing Patterns Report. 1981. Memphis, Tenn. [37] (23) SAPPINGTON, C., L.D. HILL, AND E.D. BALDWIN. 1974. Spatial Price Dif- ferential for Corn. Univ. of Tenn. (24) STALLINGS, J.L. 1977. The Feed Grain Livestock Economy for Alabama by 1985. Auburn Univ. Unpublished manuscript used in S.E. regional publ. (25) . 1988. Alabama Grain Marketing System in the (26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32) (33) (34) 1980's. Ala. Agri. Exp. Sta. Bull. 590. TRAYLOR, HARTON D. et al. 1976. An Economic Analysis of Feed Grains and Soybeans in Louisiana. DAE Rept. 505. Louis. State Univ. USDA 1974. Livestock-Feed Relationship, National and State. Statistical Bull. 530. USDA 1974. Supplement to Livestock-Feed Relationships. National and State. Statistical Bull. 530. USDA 1984. Wheat: Background for 1985 Farm Legislation. Agri. Inf. Bull. 467. Washington, D.C. USDA 1984. Corn: Background for 1985 Farm Legislation. Agri. Inf. Bull. 471, Washington, D.C. USDA 1984. Soybeans: Background for 1985 Farm Legislation. Agri. Inf. Bull. 472. Washington, D.C. USDA 1984. Oats: Background for 1985 Farm Legislation. Agri. Inf. Bull. 473. Washington, D.C. USDA 1984. Barley: Background for 1985 Farm Legislation. Agri. Inf. Bull. 477. Washington, D.C. WAILES, ERIC J. AND JOSEPH E. VERCIMAK. 1988. Grain Production and Utilization in the United States with Projections to 1990 and 2000. Unpublished manuscript. (35) . 1989. Grain Production and Utilization in North, Central and Southern States with Projections to 1990 and 2000. North Central Regional Publ. 317, SCS Bull. 333. [38] APPENDIX TABLES TABLE 1. CORN: ACRES HARVESTED, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION FOR ALABAMA, 1960-88 AND PROJECrIONS TO 1999, WITH U.S. PRODUCTION AND ALABAMA'S PERCENT OF U.S. PRODUCTION, 1960-88 Year 1960. Acres harvested Thou. ~ Yield! acre .r CIAD~ICC CC "" U.S. Production r\ Va~~ ~~r~ Ala. % Ala. of U.S. 1961. 1962. 1963. 1964. 1,705 Bu. 26.0 33.0 27.5 Thou. bu. 3,906,949 3,597,803 3,606,311 4,019,238 3,484,263 4,102s,867 4,167,608 4,860,372 4,449, 542 4,687,057 4,152,243 5,646,260 5,579,832 5,670,712 4,701,402 5,840,757 6,289,169 6,505,041 7,267,927 7,938,819 6,647,534 8,097,000 8,359,364 4,166,108 7,667,721 8,876,706 8,249,864 7,072,073 4,921,191 Sttitis ervce Thou. bu. 44,330 43,890 31,460 40,222 36,210 40,635 29,648 42,253 25,596 21,582 14,708 28,170 26,160 28,060 27,090 33,000 48,000 10,875 27,200 30,622 15,228 29,150 25,080 17,995 25,025 24,375 15,390 18,000 7,480 ,v Pct. 1. 1346 1.2199 .8724 1.0007 1.0390 .9904 .7114 .8693 .5753 .4685 .3542 .4989 .4688 .4948 .5762 .5650 .7632 .1672 .3742 .3857 .2291 .3600 .3000 .43 19 .3264 .2746 .1865 .2545 .1520 1,330 1,144 1,133 1,020 1965. 1966. 1967. 1968. 1969. 1970. 1971. 1972. 1973. 1974. 1975.... 1976.... 1977.... 1978.... 1979.... 1980.... 1981... 1982.... 1983 ... 1984.... 1985... 1986.... 1987... 1988... Dat Sure: 945 872 899 711 35.5 35.5 43.0 34.0 47.0 36.0 33.0 26.5 45.0 48.0 46.0 43.0 50.0 60.0 29.0 50.0 61.0 36.0 654 555 626 545 610 630 660 800 375 544 502 423 530 380 305 385 325 270 250 170 laam 55.0 66.0 59.0 65.0 75.0 57.0 72.0 44.0 71.4 a Aaii Aricltra 1999, Source: 140 Data Al 10.000 vrios sses [39] TABLE 2. SOYBEANS: ACRES HARVESTED, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION FOR ALABAMA, 1960-88 AND PROJECTIONS TO 1999, WITH U.S. PRODUCTION AND ALABAMA'S PERCENT OF U.S. PRODUCTION, 1960-88 ------ -~------ ~-~ ------- -----Acres Year Yerharvested Thou. 19E60 135 157 19E61 194152... 176 3 . 192 19E54... 207 194 .. 228 19E655 280 19456... 57... 484 1949 58... 550 194,9. 630 600 19470... 71 655 19" 800 19' 72... 73 970 19^74 920 19"75. 1,260 19' 19"76..1,170 19' 77..1,500 78..1,850 19' 79..2,150 19' 80... 2,100 19' 81... 2,020 19f 82... 2,000 191 83... 1,500 191 84... 1,370 191 85... 1,030 191 8 ... 610 191 8 ... 480 8 ... 570 1999 560 Yield \F YYY~ I I~() acre U.S. II Bu. Thou. bu. 24.0 555,085 23.0 678,554 20.5 669,186 20.0 699,165 22.0 700,921 22.0 845,608 24.5 928,481 26.5 976,439 22.0 1,106,958 22.5 1,133,120 23.0 1,127,100 26.0 1,175,989 20.0 1,270,630 21.0 1,547,165 23.0 1,216,287 24.5 1,548,344 24.0 1,288,608 21.0 1,767,267 21.0 1,868,754 25.0 2,267,901 15.0 1,792,700 23.0 2,106,568 25.0 2,229,486 20.0 1,566,684 21.0 2,027,565 27.0 2,098,531 23.0 1,940,101 16.5 1,922,767 25.0 1,538,666 23.0 r~rrn~ Production PROnI rr Ala. r % Ala. of U.S. Thou. bu. Pct. 3,240 0.5837 3,611 .5322 3,608 .5392 .5492 3,840 .6497 4,554 5,016 .5932 6,860 .7388 1.3135 12,826 12,100 1.0931 14,175 1,2510 13,800 1.2244 17,030 1.4481 16,000 1.2592 20,370 1.3166 21,160 1.7397 1.9937 30, 870 28,080 2. 1791 31,500 1.7824 38,850 2.0790 2.3700 53,750 1.7577 31,500 46,460 2.2055 2.2427 50,000 1.9149 30,000 28,770 1.4189 27,810 1.3252 14,030 .4772 7,920 .4119 14,250 .9261 12,880 Data Source: Alabama Agricultural Statistics Service, various issues. [40] TABLE 3. GRAIN SORGHUM: AcRES HARVESTED, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION FOR ALABAMA, 1960-88 AND PROJECTIONS TO 1999, WITH U.S. PRODUCTION AND ALABAMA'S PERCENT OF U.S. PRODUCTION, 1960-88 Acres Year harvested Yer Yield! u acre u--vr vurU.S. ~IU Thou. 19( 60 19461 1941 62 63 64 91 9 19165 66 191 191 67 19'X68 19'X69 19'X70 19' ... 19'X72 19'73 19'X74 19' 19'76... 19'77... 19 78... 179.. 80.. 81.. 82.. 83 ... 1984... 19,85 ... 19: 86... 87 ... 88.. 20 14 10 11 7 Bu. 24.0 26.0 24.0 28.0 27.0 27.0 30.0 35.0 28.0 34.0 34.0 37.0 32.0 39.0 35.0 37.0 35.0 27.0 37.0 37.0 33.0 37.0 43.0 43.0 50.0 Thou. bu. 619,954 480,208 510,284 585,394 489,796 672,698 714,992 755,344 731,277 729,919 683,179 867,997 801,350 923,224 622,711 754,354 710,797 780,944 731,270 807,422 579,343 875,835 835,083 487,521 866,241 1,120,271 938,124 739,249 577,551 10 7 71 8 10 17 22 70 31 29 75 29 33 31 27 34 28 34 58 68 100 180 230 100 40 25 55.0 40.0 48.0 45.0 r Production rrrr r v v Ala. r %oAla. of U.S. Thou. bu. Pct. 0.0774 480 364 .0758 240 .0470 .0526 308 189 .0386 270 .0401 210 .0294 280 .0371 280 .0383 578 .0792 748 .1095 2,590 .2984 .1238 992 1,131 .1225 1,015 .1630 1,221 .1619 1,085 .1526 729 .0933 .1720 1,258 .1533 1.238 1,122 .1937 2,146 .2450 .3501 2,924 .8820 4,300 1.0390 9,000 12,650 1.1291 4,000 .4264 1,920 .2597 1,025 .1775 52 50.0 1999 2,600 Data Source: Alabama Agricultural Statistics Service, various issues. [41 ] TABLE 4. WHEAT: ACRES HARVESTED, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION FOR ALABAMA, 1960-88 AND PROJECTIONS TO 1999, WITH U.S. PRODUCTION AND ALABAMA'S PERCENT OF U.S. PRODUCTION, 1960-88 Year Acres harvested Thou. 19E60 48 19E61. .. 56 19( 62 35 19E 63 42 19E 64 64 19E65 55 19E66 59 19E67 112 19E68 111 19E69 87 197 10 85 192 711 .. 120 192 12... 110 192 13 ... 80 95 197 14... 197 15.. . 110 197 16... 105 110 192 17... 19218... 90 192 19... 145 191 8 ...260 19E 8 ...565 191 2 ...725 19E 3 ...460 19E 8 ...380 191 8 ...400 191 8 ...220 191 7 ...170 19E 8 ...200 1999..... 270 Yield! 11 11~ ~ 1 acre r U.S. clr Bu. Thou. bu. 25.0 1,111,403 26.0 1,074,807 24.0 812,887 23.5 914,090 25.0 1,020,987 24.5 1,017,075 28.0 1,057,371 24.0 1,194,119 25.0 1,217,555 29.0 1,131,439 28.0 1,091,744 29.0 1,145,011 20.0 1,186,498 23.0 1,278,220 23.5 1,375,526 24.0 1,642,900 27.0 1,564,118 28.0 1,540,419 26.0 1,222,446 26.0 1,601,234 25.5 1,902,011 44.0 2,097,057 32.0 2,073,560 1,988,304 33.0 2,060,266 39.0 32.0 1,827,195 26.0 1,521,498 31.0 1,565,176 43.0 1,560,790 37.0 Production II~L1~ II ~ Ala. U %1Ala. of U.S. Thou. bu. Pct. 0. 1080 1,200 .1355 1,456 840 .1021 .1080 987 .1567 1,600 .1325 1,348 .1562 1,652 2,688 .2251 2,775 .2279 2,523 .2230 2,380 .2180 3,480 .3039 2,200 .1854 1,840 .1440 2,233 .1623 .1607 2,640 2,835 .1812 3,080 .1999 2,340 .1914 3,770 .2354 6,630 .3486 24,860 1.1855 23,200 1.1188 15,180 .7635 14,820 .7193 12,800 .7005 .3759 5,720 5,270 .3367 8,600 .5510 10,000 Data Source: Alabama Agricultural Statistics Service, various issues. [42] TABLE 5. OATS: ACRES HARvESTED, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION, ALABAMA, 1960-88 AND PROJECTIONS TO 1999, WITH U.S. PRODUCTION AND ALABAMA'S PERCENT OF U.S. PRODUCTION, 1960-88 Year 1960. 1961. 1962. 1963. 1964. Acres harvested Yield/ acre T~ IUUO UITTUIri Cuuuc ucurii U.S. Ala. % Ala. of U.S. Thou. 85 85 72 40 42 Bu. 35.0 39.0 34.0 29.0 40.5 35.0 39.0 36.0 36.0 44.0 40.0 44.0 33.0 38.0 35.0 36.0 38.0 42.5 42.0 43.0 42.0 59.0 52.0 49.0 48.0 41.0 40.0 50.0 Thou. bu. 1,153,332 1,010,314 1,012,197 965,510 852,257 929,554 803,324 793,800 950,689 965,863 915,236 878,097 690,616 659,136 Thou. bu. 2,975 3,315 2,448 1,160 1,701 1,400 1,404 1,188 1,116 1,408 1,240 1,584 594 760 700 1,044 988 1,190 1,344 1,204 1,260 2,360 2,080 1,960 1,440 1,435 1,200 1,250 1,100 Pct. 0.2579 .3281 .2419 .1201 .1996 .1506 .1748 .1497 .1174 .1458 1965. 1966. 1967. 1968. 1969 . 1970. 1971. 1972. 1973. 1974. 1975. 1976.... 1977.... 1978.... 1979.... 1980.... 1981.... 1982.... 1983.... 1984.... 1985... 1986.... 1987.... 1988.... 40 36 33 31 32 31 36 18 20 20 29 26 28 32 28 30 40 40 40 30 35 30 25 20 .1355 690,655 638,960 540,411 750,774 581,657 526,748 458,192 509,529 592,630 476,961 473,661 520,800 386,356 374,000 218,773 55.0 .1804 .0860 .1153 .1165 .1634 .1712 .1362 .2311 .2286 .2750 .4632 .35 10 .4109 .3040 .2755 .3 106 .3342 .5028 1999 30 50.0 1,500 Data Source: Alabama Agricultural Statistics Service, various issues. [43]. TABLE 6. LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY: NUMBERS AND PRODUCTION, BY KINDS, ALABAMA, 1960-87, WITH PROJECTIONS TO THE YEAR 2000 ear Broilers produced' Thou. Hens & pullets2 Thou. 6,614 7,310 8,838 9,507 10,143 Other chickens' Thou. 3,899 4,160 5,384 5,756 6,218 Turkeys raised' Thou. - Pig crop 3 Thou. 1,596 1,463 1,448 1,356 1,206 Beef cows 2 Thou. - Dairy cows 2 Thou. - Cattle on feed' Thou. 30 38 40 40 39 Other cattle2 Thou. - Sheep & lambs 2 Thou. 36 31 22 18 14 Horses & mules Thou. 100 116 132 149 165 1960.... 176,654 1961.... 198,036 1962.... 214,933 1963.... 227,989 1964.... 242,764 1965.... 1966.... 1967.... 1968.... 1969.... 1970.... 1971 .... 1972 .... 285,077 324,124 324,629 328,510 352,745 376,112 384,347 399,274 10,424 11,058 11,993 12,256 12,538 12,905 12,826 12,532 6,834 4,626 5,525 5,694 7,620 6,500 6,508 6,535 39 - 1,108 1,171 1,404 1,476 1,537 1,474 1,770 1,721 848 856 830 863 903 897 915 951 174 161 155 143 133 122 120 120 44 37 42 41 41 38 35 34 889 881 850 868 819 896 903 945 12 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 158 151 144 138 131 131 136 141 1973.... 1974.... 1975.... 1976.... 1977.... 1978.... 1979.... 1980.... 399,324 398,303 395,769 430,225 428,099 441,699 493,060 494,709 12,743 12,904 12,538 12,263 13,434 13,794 13,785 13,738 12,869 7,020 5,170 6,200 6,800 6,690 6,250 8,100 7,200 5,850 14 - 1,475 1,160 1,207 1,100 1,091 1,096 1,364 1,407 1,210 1,000 1,007 1,238 1,314 1,096 1,021 911 847 946 115 100 92 86 84 79 74 72 64 37 38 42 45 44 40 33 27 33 960 1,032 1,328 1,405 1,136 990 802 784 882 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 146 150 154 157 160 163 168 174 179 1981 .... 519,288 1982.... 500,232 1983.... 515,729 1984.... 536,580 1985.... 561,757 1986 .... 587,563 1987.... 666,538 12,056 11,503 11,940 11,295 11,185 11,410 5,250 4,840 4,925 5,580 5,330 4,895 31 23 907 787 722 566 511 615 950 935 883 871 862 917 60 55 52 52 49 43 34 30 40 30 40 51 906 890 895 880 830 839 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 184 188 - 2000.... 780,000 11,920 6,000 23 400 1,000 20 35 1,020 'Produced. 2 0n hand Jan. 1. of previous fall crop of pigs + present year spring crop. Sources: USDA and U.S. Bureau of Census plus Equine Flu Survey for Horses and Mules with some interpolation. 200 'Sum TABLE 7. LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY: NUMBERS AND PRODUCTION, BY KINDS, U.S., 1960-87 Year Broilers produced Thou. Hens & pullets Thou. 295,284 296,648 299,834 298,476 301,053 Other chickens Thou. - Pig crop Thou. 90,003 91,354 91,882 94,882 90,989 Beef cows Thou. - Dairy cows Thou. - Cattle on feed Thou. 7,574 8,048 8,520 9,702 9,845 Other cattle Thou. - Sheep & lambs Thou. - Horses & mules Thou. - 1960..... 1,794,933 1961..... 1,990,906 1962..... 2,023,373 1963 ..... 2,102,023 1964..... 2,161,173 - - - - - 'Z '3 1965..... 2,333,633 301,687 1966..... 2,570,516 303,832 1967..... 2,591,850 313,717 309,824 1968.....2,619,855 108,573 306,886 1969..... 2,788,732 1970..... 2,986,769 312,759 109,897 103,785 1971.....2,945,348 312,886 1972 ..... 3,074,921 304,504 104,037 114,966 1973 ..... 3,003,667 290,588 1974..... 2,992,820 284,732 98,068 278,101 100,011 1975 ..... 2,950,099 98,583 274,134 1976..... 3,273,556 274,871 99,841 1977..... 3,393,897 281,478 103,627 1978..... 3,613,647 288,623 105,652 1979..... 3,951,291 287,723 97,887 1980 ..... 3,964,452 90,711 286,884 1981..... 4,149,200 4,151,275 286,299 89,641 1982 ..... 276,096 86,361 1983..... 4,130,000 277,900 1984 ..... 4,184,000 1985..... 4,479,000 279,000 276,900 1986..... 4,646,000 285,500 1987..... 5,003,000 Source: USDA and U.S. Bureau of Census. 82,388 81,866 90,250 92,628 91,599 94,281 101,506 93,592 89,176 86,790 74,482 77,833 85,178 85,683 96,602 104,406 96,856 87,173 89,760 86,957 86,713 83,876 85,132 33,400 33,500 33,770 34,570 35,490 36,689 37,878 38,810 40,932 43,182 45,712 43,901 41,443 38,738 37,062 37,107 38,773 39,230 37,940 37,494 35,370 33,633 33,779 15,380 14,490 13,725 13,115 12,550 12,091 11,909 11,776 11,622 11,279 11,220 11,071 10,998 10,896 10,790 10,758 10,849 10,986 11,047 11,109 10,805 11,177 10,502 9,979 10,582 11,268 11,417 12,534 13,190 12,770 13,912 14,432 13,643 10,170 13,941 12,580 13,472 13,274 12,221 11,598 10,618 12,051 11,594 12,458 11,497 10,963 50,241 50,290 50,020 50,269 49,441 50,399 52,021 53,364 54,553 59,666 65,926 60,067 57,789 53,269 49,738 51,104 53,137 54,654 54,004 53,631 48,199 49,514 43,814 - 20,432 19,731 18,739 17,641 16,310 14,515 13,311 12,722 12,421 12,365 12,699 12,947 12,997 12,140 11,487 10,443 9,983 10,334 - 1,596 - 2,209 - 2,497 - TABLE 8. LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY: ALABAMA'S PE~RCENT OF U.S. PRODUCTION AND NUIMBERS. BY KINDS. 1960-88 " ... . + + vvrr a. 1/[aL[ 11L7 V 1 Ll\\iLlIA VA V"v" i 1\VYV AXi l JI 1\V1 ILEA\l79 "A ALAI\LJ9 1/V%/ UU Broilers produced Pct. 1960....... 9.8418 Year Hens & pullets Other chickens Pig crop Beef cows 1961 ........ 1962...10.6225 1963...10.8462 1964...11.2330 9.9470 1965...12.2160 1966...12.6093 1967...12.5250 1968...12.5392 1969...12.6489 1971...13.0493 1970...12.5926 2~1972...12.9849 S 1973...13.2725 1974...13.3086 1975...13.4154 1976...13.1424 1977...12.6138 1978...12.2231 1979...12.4785 1980...12.4786 1981...12.5154 1985...12.5420 1987...13.3228 1982...12.0501 1983...12.4873 1984...12.8246 1986...12.6466 Pct. 2.2399 2.4642 2.9476 3. 1852 3.3692 3.4552 3.6395 3.8229 3.9558 4.0856 4.1262 4.0993 4.1155 4.3852 4.5320 4.5084 4.4734 4.8874 4.9006 4.7761 4.7747 4.4858 4.21 10 4. 1663 4.2965 4.0484 4.0394 3.9965 Pct. 7.0183 5.9146 6.2707 6.2814 6.1062 5.2719 6. 1993 6.8977 6.7007 6.03 12 7.6667 7.3554 6.4491 5.8567 5.6044 Pct. 1.7733 1.6015 1.5759 1.4300 1.3254 1.3449 1.4300 1.5557 1.5935 1.6780 1.5634 1.7437 1.8401 1.6540 1.3366 1.6205 1.4133 1.2808 1.2791 1.4120 1.3476 1.2493 1.0405 .8768 .8303 .6527 .6092 .7224 Pct. Dairy cows Pct. 1988Source: USDA and U.S. Bureau of Census. 2.5389 2.5552 2.4578 2.4964 2.5444 2.4449 2.4157 2.4504 2.443 1 2.4779 2.7083 2.993 1 2.6446 2.6357 2.4580 2.2826 2.4398 2.4216 2.4644 2.3550 2.4625 2.5630 2.7147 2.5804 1. 1313 1.1111 1.1293 1.0904 1.0598 1.0090 1.0076 1.0190 .9895 .8852 .8200 .7768 .7638 .7250 .6858 .6693 .5899 .5461 .4979 .4681 .4535 .4294 .4094 .3881 Cattle on feed Pct. 0.3961 .4722 .4695 .4123 .3961 .4409 .3497 .3727 .3591 .3271 .2881 .2741 .2444 .2564 .2785 .4130 .3477 .3498 .2969 .2486 .2209 .2845 .3202 .2489 .3450 .2408 .3479 .4652 .2602 Other cattle Pct. Horses & mules Pct. 1.7695 1.7518 1.6993 1.7267 1.6565 1.7778 1.7358 1.7709 1.7598 1.7296 2.0454 2.3391 1.9658 1.8585 1.6124 1.5341 1.6599 1.6577 1.6480 1.6688 1.8258 1.6763 1.9149 1.8266 9.3985 7.3789 7.3688 TABLE 9. FEED GRAINS: TOTAL DISAPPEARANCE AND PERCENT OF TOTAL, BY KIND OF GRAIN, ALABAMA, 1987, WITH PROJECTIONS TO THE YEAR 2000 Feed grain Corn............ Soybeans .......... Sorghum .......... Wheat ............ Oats ............. Other* ............ Total disappearance 1987 2000 Thou. bu. Thou. bu. 134,440.09 135,757.09 60,418.21 75,646.20 5,543.39 5,730.10 10,502.23 15,729.44 15,873.56 16,082.19 1,061.00 917.37 249,862.39 Pct. of total 1987 2000 Pct. Pct. 59.0 54.3 26.5 30.3 2.4 2.3 4.6 6.3 7.0 6.4 0.5 0.4 100.0 100.0 Total .......... 227,838.48 *Includes barley and rye. [47] TABLE 10. CORN: TOTAL DISAPPEARANCE, BY DIFFERENT USES AND OUTLETS, ALABAMA, 1987, WITH PROJECTIONS TO THE YEAR 2000 Livestock Use per Disappearance Use or Unit 1987 Thou. numbers 2000 Thou. 780,000 10,920 6,000 23 400 1,000 20 35 1,020 4 200 799,622 1987 Lb. 6.95 62.44 8.31 32.40 900.00 132.94 3,300.00 3,721.67 161.50 103.73 850.00 9,279.94 head 2000 Lb. 6.95 62.44 8.31 32.40 300.00 130.00 3,500.00 3,721.67 161.50 103.73 350.00 9,377.00 1987 Thou. bu. of corn 2000 Thou. bu. 96,803.57 12,175.80 890.36 13.31 5,714.29 2,321.43 1,250.00 2,326.04 2,941.61 7.41 3,035.71 127,479.52 44.87 5,596.70 1,276.00 1,360.00 8,277.57 135,757.09 " Livestock feed': Raised Broilers produced ........... Hens & pullets ............. On hand Jan. 1 On hand Jan. 1 Other chickens ............... Raised Turkeys ..................... ... No. fall & winter Pig crop .................. On hand Jan. 1 Beef cows ................... On hand Jan. 1 Dairy cows .................. On hand Jan. 1 Cattle on feed ............... hand Jan. 1 Other cattle .................. On hand Jan. 1 Sheep & lambs ............. On hand Jan. 1 Horses & mules .............. Subtotal ................... Other uses: Seed 2 ....................... 3 Processing .................. 4 Shipments to ports ........... 4 Shipments to other states ..... Subtotal................... Oh 666,538 11,410 4,895 23 615 917 43 51 839 3 195 685,529 82,722.13 12,722.15 726.38 13.31 9,883.93 2,176.89 2,533.93 3,389.38 2,419.62 5.56 2,959.82 119,553.09 68.10 10,074.10 2,296.80 2,448.00 14,887.00 134,440.09 Total disappearance ............ 'Raw grain or equivalent necessary for manufactured feed. 2 Estimated from USDA figures. 3 Processed for nonlivestock uses such as human food, sweeteners, etc. 4 Estimated from Auburn University survey and USDA figures. TABLE 11. SoYBEANS: TOTAL DISAPPEARANCE, BY DIFFERENT USES AND OUTLETS, ALABAMA, 1987, WITH PROJECTIONS TO THE YEAR 2000 Livestock Use per Disappearance of soybeans head numbers Unit ueto oult1987 2000 1987 2000 1987 2000 Thou. ---~---Thou. Lb. Lb. Thou. bu. Thou. bu. Livestock feed': 780,000 666,538 Broilers produced............Raised 3.13 3.13 40,690.00 34,771.07 11,410 10,920 Hens & pullets.............On hand Jan. 1 20.50 20.50 3,898.42 3,731.00 4, 895 6,000 9.57 Other chickens.............On hand Jan. 1 9.57 780.75 957.00 23 23 Turkeys...................Raised 29.26 29.26 11.22 11.22 fall & winter Pig crop..................No. 400 615 193.04 206.83 2,120.01 1,286.93 Beef cows..................On hand Jan. 1 917 1,000 58.27 58.27 890.56 971.17 hand Jan. 1 Dairy cows................On 20 43 542.49 557.47 388.78 185.82 Cattle on feed...............On hand Jan. 1 51 35 272.56 272.56 231.68 158.99 On hand Jan. 1 839 1,020 Other cattle................. 55.72 55.72 779.15 947.24 Sheep & lambs .............. On hand Jan. 1 4 79.97 79.97 3 4.00 5.33 Horses & mules ............. 195 200 66.05 66.05 214.66 220.17 Subtotal................. 685,529 7999,622 1,344.35 1,345.54 44,090.29 49,164.87 Other 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . uses: S . 504.63 683.35 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . '~Processing 11,627.22 18,956.78 4 . . . . . . . . . Shipments to ports . 2,892.19 4,715.37 4. Shipments to other states 1,303.89 2,125.83 Subtotal................. 16,327.92 26,481.33 Seed Total disappearance.......... 'Raw grain or equivalent necessary for manufactured feed. 'Estimated from USDA figures. 'Processed for nonlivestock uses such as human food, sweeteners, etc. 60,418.21 75,646.20 'Estimated from Auburn University survey and USDA figures. TABLE 12. GRAIN SORGHUM: TOTAL DISAPPEARANCE, BY DIFFERENT USES AND OUTLETS, ALABAMA, 1987, WITH PROJECTIONS TO THE YEAR 2000 outletr Unit Livestock numbers 1987 Thou. 666,538 11,410 4,895 23 615 917 43 51 839 3 195 685,529 2000 Thou. 780,000 10,920 6,000 23 400 1,000 20 35 1,020 4 200 799,622 1987 Lb. Use per head 2000 Lb. 0.21 .45 .63 .27 60.00 30.00 125.00 1,229.48 25.70 .68 50.00 1,522.42 Disappearance of sorghum 2000 1987 Thou. bu. Thou. bu. 2,499.52 91.69 55.07 .11 549.11 425.75 95.98 1,119.71 385.04 .04 174.11 5,396.11 22.55 21.40 76.61 26.71 147.28 5,543.39 2,925.00 91.69 67.50 .11 428.57 535.71 44.64 768.43 468.11 .05 178.57 5,508.38 56.06 29.80 99.68 36.17 221.72 5,730.10 o Livestock feed': Broilers produced ............ Raised On hand Jan. 1 Hens & pullets ............... On hand Jan. 1 Other chickens ............... Raised Turkeys .................... .No. fall & winter Pig crop ................... On hand Jan. 1 Beef cows ................... On hand Jan. 1 Dairy cows .................. On hand Jan. 1 Cattle on feed ............... On hand Jan. 1 Other cattle ................. On hand Jan. 1 Sheep & lambs .............. On hand Jan. 1 Horses & mules .............. Subtotal................... Other uses: Seed 2 ....................... 3 Processing .................. 4 Shipments to ports .......... 4 Shipments to other states ..... Subtotal ................... 0.21 .45 .63 .27 50.00 26.00 125.00 1,229.48 25.70 .68 50.00 1,508.42 Total disappearance ............ 'Raw grain or equivalent necessary for manufactured feed. 2 Estimated from USDA figures. 3 Processed for nonlivestock uses such as human food, sweeteners, etc. 4 Estimated from Auburn University survey and USDA figures. TABLE 13. WHEAT: TOTAL DISAPPEARANCE, BY DIFFERENT USES AND OUTLETS, ALABAMA 1987, WITH PROJECTIONS TO THE YEAR 2000 Use or outlet Unit Livestock numbers 1987 Thou. 666,538 11,410 4,895 23 615 917 43 51 839 3 195 685,529 2000 Thou. 780,000 10,920 6,000 23 400 1,000 20 35 1,020 4 200 799,622 1987 Lb. Use per head 2000 Lb. 0.32 4.82 3.92 2.73 25.00 16.00 337.76 319.48 10.26 8.00 .00 728.29 Disappearance of wheat 1987 2000 Thou. bu. Thou. bu. 3,554.87 916.60 .00 1.05 256.25 213.97 121.04 271.56 143.47 .35 .00 5,479.15 317.50 2,416.30 1,392.33 896.95 5,023.08 10,502.23 4,160.00 877.24 392.00 1.05 166.67 266.67 112.59 186.36 174.42 .53 .00 6,337.52 462.92 4,585.00 2,642.00 1,702.00 9,391.92 15,729.44 Livestock feed': Broilers produced .......... Raised Hens & pullets............ On hand Jan. 1 Other chickens ............... On hand Jan. 1 Turkeys ................. .. Raised Pig crop ................ .. No. fall & winter Beef cows ................ On hand Jan. 1 Dairy cows .................. On hand Jan. 1 Cattle on feed ............... On hand Jan. 1 Other cattle .................. On hand Jan. 1 Sheep & lambs .............. On hand Jan. 1 Horses & mules.............. On hand Jan. 1 Subtotal................... Other uses: Seed 2 ....................... Processing 3 .................. Shipments to ports 4 ........... Shipments to other states 4 ..... Subtotal ................... 0.32 4.82 .00 2.73 25.00 14.00 168.89 319.48 10.26 7.00 .00 552.50 Total disappearance ........... 'Raw grain or equivalent necessary for manufactured feed. 2 Estimated from USDA figures. 3 Processed for nonlivestock uses such as human food, sweeteners, etc. 4 Estimated from Auburn University survey and USDA figures. TABLE 14. OATS: TOTAL DISAPPEARANCE, BY DIFFERENT USES AND OUTLETS, ALABAMA, 1987, WITH PROJECTIONS TO THE YEAR 2000 Use or outlet Unit Livestock numbers 1987 Thou. 666,538 11,410 4,895 23 615 917 43 51 839 3 195 685,529 2000 Thou. 780,000 10,920 6,000 23 400 1,000 20 35 1,020 4 200 799,622 1987 Lb. Use per head 2000 Lb. 0.00 4.84 1.14 1.36 10.00 8.00 111.56 40.41 9.12 6.67 2,000.00 2,193.10 Disappearance of oats 1987 2000 Thou. bu. Thou. bu. 0.00 1,725.76 174.38 .98 192.19 229.25 299.80 64.40 239.12 .63 12,187.50 15,114.01 135.00 553.13 71.43 759.55 15,873.56 0.00 1,651.65 213.75 .98 125.00 250.00 69.73 44.20 290.70 .83 12,500.00 15,146.83 195.00 663.75 76.61 935.36 16,082.19 Livestock feed': Broilers produced ........... Raised Hens & pullets ............. On hand Jan. 1 Other chickens ............... On hand Jan. 1 . Raised Turkeys ................. Pig crop ................ .. No. fall & winter Beef cows ................... On hand Jan. 1 Dairy cows .................. On hand Jan. 1 Cattle on feed ............... On hand Jan. 1 Other cattle ................ On hand Jan. 1 Sheep & lambs ............... On hand Jan. 1 Horses & mules ............. On hand Jan. 1 Subtotal ................... Other uses: Seed 2 ... ..................... Processing3 .................. Shipments to ports4 ........... Subtotal ................... 0.00 4.84 1.14 1.36 10.00 8.00 223.11 40.41 9.12 6.67 2,000.00 2,304.65 Total disappearance ......... 'Raw grain or equivalent necessary for manufactured feed. 2 Estimated from USDA figures. 3 Processed for nonlivestock uses such as human food, sweeteners, etc. 4 Estimated from Auburn University survey and USDA figures. TABLE 15. FEED GRAINS: ESTIMATED DISAPPEARANCE PER HEAD, BY DIFFERENT CLASSES OF LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY, ALABAMA 1987 Livestock Corn Grain Livestock Total Pct. of Ala. Lietc onSoybeans Oats Wheat Other Toa sorghum numbers all grains grain con. Bu. /head Broilers ........ 0.1241 Hens & pullets.. 1.1150 Other chickens .. .1484 Turkeys......... .5786 Hog & pigs ... 16.0714 ~i Beef cows...2.3739 Dairy cows ... 58.9286 Cattle on feed ... 66.4584 Other cattle..2.8839 Bu. /head 0.0038 .0080 .0113 .0048 .8929 .4643 2.2321 21.9550 .4589 .0121 .8929 Bu./head 0.0522 .3417 .1595 .4877 3.4472 .9712 9.0415 4.5427 .9287 1.3328 1.1008 Bu. /head 0.0000 .1513 .0356 .0425 .3125 .2500 .6.9722 1.2628 .2850 .2084 62.5000 Bu. /head 0.0053 .0803 .0000 .0455 .4167 .2333 2.8148 5.3213 .1710 .1167 .0000 Bu. /head 0.0000 .0300 .0000 .0077 .1667 .0000 3.1088 2.1857 .1344 .0938 1.0417 Bu./head 0.1854 1.7263 .3548 1.1668 21.3073 4.2927 83.0980 101.9044 4.8619 3.6162 80.71392 Thou 666.538 11,410 4,895 23 615 917 43 51 839 3 195 Thou. bu. 123,547.58 19,696.92 1,736.59 26.84 13,103.98 3,936.42 3,573.21 5,197.13 4,079.13 10.85 15,739.22 Pct. 64.81 10.33 .91 .01 6.87 2.06 1.87 2.73 2.14 .01 8.26 Totals ............................................... 190,647.86 100.00 Source: Per head consumption figures obtained from 1983 USDA estimates for Alabama and adjusted for 1987 after consultation with local Cooperative Extension Service Agricultural Experiment Station personnel. Sheep &mules.. 15.1786 lambs.. 1.8523 Horses & and TABLE 16. FEED GRAINS: ESTIMATED DISAPPEARANCE PER HEAD, BY DIFFERENT CLASSES OF LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY, ALABAMA YEAR 2000 Pct. of Ala. grain con. Thou. bu. Pct. Bu. /head Bu. /head Bu. /head Bu. /head Bu. /head Bu. /head Bu./head Thou. 0.0522 0.0000 0.0053 0.0000 0.1854 780,000 144,578.57 70.70 Broilers ......... 0.1241 0.0038 9.22 1.7263 10,920 18,851.04 .3417 .1513 .0803 .0300 .0080 Hens & pullets .. 1.1150 Other chickens .. .1484 .0113 .1595 .0356 .0653 .0000 .4201 6,000 2,520.61 1.23 Turkeys......... .5786 .0048 .4877 .0425 .0455 .0077 1.1668 23 26.84 .01 3.81 400 7,788.12 .4167 .1667 19.4703 3.2173 .3125 1.0714 Hog & pigs ..... 14.2857 Beef cows ....... 2.3214 .5357 .9712 .2500 .2667 .0000 4.3450 1,000 4,344.98 2.12 20 1,693.87 .83 9.2912 3.4863 5.6293 1.5544 84.6933 Dairy cows ...... 62.5000 2.2321 101.9045 35 3,566.66 1.74 Cattle on feed... 66.4584 21.9550 4.5427 1.2628 5.3213 2.1857 2.43 .4589 .9287 .2850 .1710 .1344 4.8619 1,020 4,959.14 Other cattle ..... 2.8839 4 14.49 .01 0.0121 1.3328 .2084 .1333 .0833 3.6224 Sheep & lambs .. 1.8523 7.89 1.0417 80.71392 200 16,142.79 .8929 1.1008 62.5000 .0000 Horses & mules..15.1786 Totals ........ 204,487.09 100.00 Source: Per head consumption figures adjusted from 1987 estimates after consultation with local Cooperative Extension Service and Agricultural Experiment Station personnel. Livestock Corn Grain so Soybeans Oats Wheat Other Total Livestock numbers Total all grains TABLE 17. FEED GRAINS: PRODUCTION-DISAPPEARANCE BALANCE FOR ALL USES AND SURPLUS AND DEFICIT FOR ALABAMA, 1987, WITH PROJECTIONS TO THE YEAR 2000 Feed grain Production 1987 2000 Thou. bu. 10,000 12,880 2,600 10,000 1,500 35 37,015 Total disappearance 2000 1987 Thou. bu. 134,440.09 60,473.21 5,543.39 10,502.23 15,873.56 1,061.00 227,838.48 Thou. bu. 135,757.09 75,646.20 5,730.10 15,729.44 16,082.19 917.37 249,862.39 Surplus or deficitof 2000 1987 Thou. bu. (116,440.09) (52,518.21) (3,623.39) (5,232.23) (14,623.56) (1030.00) (193,467.48) Thou. bu. (125,757.09) (62,766.20) (3,130.10) (5,729.44) (14,582.19) (882.37) (212,847.39) diaprace 2000 1987 Pct. 13.39 13.08 34.64 50.18 7.87 2.92 15.09 Pct. 7.37 17.03 45.37 63.58 9.33 3.82 14.81 Thou. bu. 18,000 Corn .............. 7,900 Soybeans ........... 1,920 Grain sorghum ..... .5,270 Wheat ............. 1,250 Oats .............. 31 Other* ............ 34,371 Total............ *Includes barley and rye. Grain TABLE 18. FEED GRAINS: PRODUCTION-UTILIZATION BALANCES FOR LIVESTOCK AND SURPLUS AND DEFICIT FOR ALABAMA, 1987, WITH PROJECTIONS TO THE YEAR 2000 Percent production Surplus or deficit disappearance Feed__ProductionTotal Feed Production Total of disappearance 1987 2000 1987 2000 1987 Thou. bu. (101,553.09) (36,190.29) (3,476.11) (209.15) (13,864.01) (984.21) (156,276.86) 2000 Thou. bu. (117,479.52) (36,284.87) (2,908.38) 3,662.48 (13,646.83) (814.97) (167,472.09) 1987 Pct. 15.06 17.92 35.58 96.18 8.27 3.05 18.03 2000 Pct. 7.84 26.20 47.20 157.79 9.90 4.16 18.10 Thou. bu. Corn .............. 18,000 Soybeans......... 7,900 Grain sorghum... 1,920 Wheat ............. 5,270 Oats............... 1,250 Other*.............. 31 Total............ 34,371 *Includes barley and rye. Thou. bu. 10,000 12,880 2,600 10,000 1,500 35 37,015 Thou. bu. 119,553.09 44,090.29 5,396.11 5,479.15 15,114.01 1,015.21 190,647.86 Thou. bu. 127,479.52 49,164.87 5,508.38 6,337.52 15,146.83 849.97 204,487.09 With an agricultural research unit in every major soil area, Auburn University serves the needs of field crop, livestock, forestry, and horticultural producers in each region in Alabama. Every citizen of the State has a stake in this research program, since any advantage from new and more economical ways of producing and handling farm products directly benefits the consuming public. 3 2 (8 10 13 15 18 19 0 Main Agricultural Experiment Station, Auburn. Tennessee Valley Substation, Belle Mina. Sand Mountain Substation, Crossville. North Alabama Horticulture Substation, Cullman. Upper Coastal Plain Substation, Winfield Forestry Unit, Fayette County Chilton Area Horticulture Substation, Clanton Forestry Unit, Coosa County Piedmont Substation, Camp Hill 4 E. V. Smith Research Center, Shorter. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 14 Plant Breeding Unit, Tallassee Forestry Unit, Autauga County Prattville Experiment Field, Prattville Black Belt Substation, Marion Junction Lower Coastal Plain Substation, Camden 13 The Turnipseed-lkenberry Place, Union Springs 15 16 17 18 Forestry Unit, Barbour County Monroeville Experiment Field, Monroeville Wiregrass Substation, Headland Brewton Experiment Field. Brewton 19 Solon Dixon Forestry Education Center. Covington and Escambia counties 20 Ornamental Horticulture Substation, Spring Hill 21 Gulf Coast Substation. Fairhope