I! 1 i (SOS-r nh C~n 0 0 D o : 3C) o a o G.D.HasnT.B.Mnsnan . . olj who Agriultral conmicsSeres N. 4 May198 Dearmet fAgicltra coomcsan url ocolg Albaa gicltrl xpriet tain ubrnUivrst Loel .FobsDietr uun nvrstAlb m ;7 I i PLANNING A HIGH MANAGEMENT "PART TIME" BEEF HERD BY Gregory D. Hanson Terry B. Hanson Ebenezer F. Kolajo CONTENTS Introduction.0 Related Information...... The Farm Planning Process.. The Resource Base and Management Objectives. Enterprise Budgets............. . The Farm Plan................. Income Projections Under Alternative Financial Factors Affecting Profitability...... .. . Summary and Conclusions........ .. .. .. . Footnotes................... Bibliography.............. ... Appendix A - Simplified Programming.. .. ... Conditions. CON" Appendix B - Enterprise Budget Tables... Information contained herein is available to all persons without regard to race, color, sex, or national origin. 2 3 6 8 11 14 15 18 21 23 24 26 PLANNING A HIGH MANAGEMENT "PART TIME" BEEF HERD BY Gregory D. Hanson Terry B. Hanson Ebenezer F. Kolajo PLANNING A HIGH MANAGEMENT "PART TIME" BEEF HERD Gregory D. Hanson* Terry B. Hanson Ebenezer F. Kolajo INTRODUCTION A farm planning "case study" is described in this report based upon the current expansion of the beef herd enterprise of an on-going diversi- fied farm in south Alabama. The two basic objectives of this beef analysis are (1) to identify and analyze input and management components critical to the establishment and long-term success of the beef enterprise, and (2) to illustrate the financial budgeting and planning processes often used in agricultural economics education and extension programs. The problems faced by the case farmer are typical of those confronting beef farmers throughout the Southeast: highly volatile beef prices and feed prices, lower than desired conception and gain rates, and inadequate uti- lization of land, labor, and management resources. The pervasiveness of these problems has resulted in extremely depressed profitability in the beef herd sector during recent years (Economic Indicators of the Farm Sector.) The farmer's beef production concerns can be broadly summarized as inadequate returns to beef herd management. The business goal of the farmer was to establish a profitable beef herd on a presently owned *Respecti vely, Former Assistant Professor (now Section Leader, Economic Indicators, ERS, USDA), former Graduate Research Assistant and Research Associate of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology. -2- 155-acre farm adjacent to the home farm. This beef herd project was "high priority" because the farm was to be operated by a daughter and son-in-law, with the express purpose of providing them a substantial share of their family income. Key components of the farm plan include an intensive, high tonnage feed production system, improved genetic stock, intensive management of conception and gain rates, marketing effectiveness, and careful control of costs. This study is specific to the region where the farm is located and to the preferences and abilities of the farm manager. However, both established and beginning farmers in other regions of the state may find the illustration of budgeting and planning principles and the discussion of effects on profitability of production, price, and expense factors to be beneficial to their operations. The part-time nature of the operation analyzed will be of particular interest to farmers who are increasingly turning to off-farm sources of income to supplement presently depressed levels of farm earnings. RELATED INFORMATION The Southeast had the highest proportion of cows and heifers in beef herds, and by far the fastest rate of increase in the breeding herd. Unprecedented changes in income in the 1970's and increases in variable costs unrelated to the beef cycle have created financial difficulties for farmers (5). This study also found that utilization of pasture and silage increased with the intensity of the feeding program. Calf crops in the -3- Southeast were found to be more responsive to the cost of feed than in other regions (1). Several studies have emphasized the vulnerability of both small and large producers to rapid changes in feed supplies and prices (5,2). These studies also indicate the importance of maintaining flexibi- lity in resource use and management and provide useful enterprise budgeting and investment analysis for the interested producer. One of the widely recognized advantages of part-time beef operations is the relatively low labor requirement necessary to maintain the herd. A survey in Northeastern states found producers preferred cow/calf enter- prises to augment income, effectively use available land and buildings, employ the labor of family members, maintain land expenses, and lower taxes (3). THE FARM PLANNING PROCESS The investment of a farmer's time and management resources in the planning process has become increasingly necessary to ensure the highest feasible returns in a time of rapidly changing technology and escalating costs. Producing crops and livestock "the way it has always been done" is not a guarantee of adequate returns. 1 / Careful and systematic analysis of production alternatives and the impacts of alternative plans on profitabi- lity has become an increasing requirement of farm survival for 1/Continuing past production traditions has seldom provided a guarahtee of success. In addition to accelerating technological changes in agriculture, farmers currently must contend with widely fluctuating dollar exchange rates, export policies, and interest rates. Future Federal farm programs may be less supportive of income levels. Should this policy change occur, management responsibilities will increase as program controls and government income "buffering" measures in agriculture diminish. -4- many commercial size operations. The basic steps in the planning process used in this case study are briefly illustrated below. (1) Inventory available resources and specific operator objectives. (2) Select enterprises to be considered. (3) Prepare enterprise budgets. (4) Develop a farm plan. (5) Analyze the plan for profitability and financial feasibility. The analysis of alternative options to the present organization of production resources is based on a thorough understanding of personal objectives, preferences, and abilities on comprehensive knowledge of resources available to the farmer (step 1). The farmer analyzed in this study satisfied these criteria very well. During several years of experience he had developed an intimate knowledge of beef husbandry (with periods of both profits and losses), had taken the time to become acquainted with beef and feed production techniques used by his neighbors, had acquired detailed knowledge of the productive characteristics of the livestock, labor, and land resources controlled, and also had identified basic personal and business goals. Knowledge of available resources and management objectives comprises the basic rationale for selecting enterprises to consider for the farm (step 2). For example, it is of little use to analyze a hog enterprise if the manager simply does not have personal interest in raising hogs. On the other hand, the availability of specialized resources, such as a hog or dairy parlor, increases the feasibility of these enterprises. The -5- preferences of individual farmers for reducing risk through enterprise diversification should also be considered. The dependence on only one source (enterprise) of income on the farm can result in large declines in family income should prices for that enterprise fall. Preparation of budgets for each enterprise selected for analysis can be described as the "heart" of the planning process (step 3). This is readily understandable since the accuracy and comprehensiveness of the cost and receipt projections in the budget will be in large part responsible for a "go" or "stop" signal to management. Without careful analysis of enter- prise profitability, there will be limited confidence in the wisdom of basing the planning and reorganization of the farm on the enterprise pro- jections. Formulation of the farm plan in this case study was based on the principle of maximizing returns to resources limiting the farm's productive capability (step 4). The plan is based on the interplay between available farm resources (e.g., tillable land and labor) and resource requirements for each enterprise (e.g., inputs needed to produce each acre of corn). This step will be discussed in greater detail later in the report. For farm situations where enterprises considered are few, and there is limited competition for the land and labor resources among the alternative enterprises (because of specialized enterprise requirements), the planning process can be adequately developed with careful evaluation of inputs and returns information in the enterprise budgets (and without simplified pro- gramming). The "simplified programming" method employed to plan the -6- case farm is a more systematic version of the enterprise planning that many farmers develop with "back of an envelope" arithmetic. 2 / A brief des- cription of the resource allocation rules used in the farm plan and a use- ful reference for the interested reader are also provided in Appendix A. After completion of the initial planning process, analysis of the farm plan's overall profitability and financial feasibility is the final step in the planning process (step 5). The adequacy of both financing and bot- tom-line profitability determines which of the following to do: (1) Proceed with the plan (2) Evaluate the need and potential for cost-cutting (3) Consider the development of substitute enterprises to potentially improve profits or (4) In limited cases to consider "cutting back" or disinvesting to improve farm returns. THE RESOURCE BASE AND MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES The case farm consisted of 120 acres of pasture, 35 acres of well drained tillable land, and 5 acres with a house, two small barns, machine shed, livestock scales, and a 2-acre pond. Because of the importance of pasture, most of which was not suitable for tillage because of relatively steep slope and consequent vulnerability to erosion, the farm has been pri- marily used for a beef herd. The herd had been based on traditional LiThe least acceptable planning method is not to develop and compare projected enterprise costs and sales receipts. It is of critical impor- tance to know which crop and livestock enterprises are responsible for both profits and losses on the farm. -7- breeds, such as Hereford and Angus. Overall conception and calf gain rates were slightly above average for the region. However, the farmer desired to increase conception and gain rates to superior levels. The farmer has recently obtained superior production performance from a limited number of Brahmma/Angus cross cows and an exotic breed bull (Simmetal). The 35 acres of tillable land have typically produced corn grain and soybeans, with average yields of approximately 110 and 40 bushels, respectively. Irriga- tion with pond collected surface runoff water is feasible for the cropped land. Potential enterprises, projected permanent assets, and priority management objectives for the case farm are described in table 1. As shown, six production enterprises were selected for analysis, consisting of three livestock (including catfish) and three crop types. Note that the crop enterprises compete for the 35 acres of tillable land. While future expansion with rented or purchased tillable land is possible, the decision has been made at this stage of farm development to restrict the farm to land currently owned. 3 / Assets that are not enterprise specific are indi- cated near the bottom of the table. The availability of structurally /The success of expansion through land purchase often critically depen~s on the timing of the land acquisition. During the late 1970's and early 1980's, aggressive land expansion proved to be less successful than in the early 1970's. Expansion with rented crop or winter grazing land may be currently feasible, however, the preference is to wait until the farm has become better established financially, the transition to the beginning farmer has been made, and the management tools of the beginning farmer have been proven. Also, observe in table 1 that the importance of determining the resource base is readily evident in the planning context. One must know what assets are available in order to decide on their optimal use. -8- sound house was important to the feasibility of this part-time operation since it saved rent. Although not purchased at the time the plan was for- mulated, the machinery assets are included to better permit the development of cost projections. Machinery investment is very limited because of the initial preference to consider custom hiring of cropping activities for the small amount of cropland. Management objectives for the cow/calf and silage enterprises are more detailed. The focus on these enterprises was based on two objectives viewed to be important: (1) a highly productive livestock enterprise to utilize pasture land, and (2) the availability of plentiful, home-grown feed supplies. The objectives relating to the cow/calf herd in table 1 exceed the present performance of the herd, and no doubt exceed the typical beef herd performance in the State. Based on past experience with the herd, the most difficult goal may be the 95 percent conception rate. However, given high quality genetic stock and intensive results-oriented management, all objectives are believed to be attainable. ENTERPRISE BUDGETS Budget information for the cow/calf herd and silage production enter- prises is provided in tables 2-3. The enterprise budgets developed for the four additional enterprises shown in table 1, stockers, channel catfish, dryland corn, and irrigated corn, are included in Appendix B. A typical budget format consists of gross receipts, variable costs, income above variable costs, fixed costs, total costs, and finally net returns to land, labor, and management (table 2, lines 1-6). Land, labor, and manage- -9- ment costs are usually not included in representative budgets because these costs vary widely across operations. The cow/calf and double-cropped silage enterprises provide an excellent illustration of the individual and unique nature of the budgeting exercise. The information in tables 2-3 differs from Alabama and Florida Cooperative Extension Service budgets for the following reasons.4_ (A) Prices are based on the farmer's individual expectations. An excellent example is the $0.75 per pound paid recently for breeding stock heifers of similar genetic stock to the planned Simmetal-Brahmma/Angus cross. The steer calf price of $0.66 per pound was thought to be reasonable over the long-run. (B) Yield levels correspond to characteristics of the resource base and management. Steer calf weights of 625 pounds at 300 days, table 1, and silage yields of 16 tons corn and 12 tons grain sorghum, table 2, illustrate this point. Soil fertility in the immediate area studied is quite high compared to most of the state. (The average corn and sorghum silage yields in Alabama in 1985 were, respectively, 12 and 10.5 tons.) 4 J/State Cooperative Extension Service budgets are developed to provide general guidelines to the farmer based on above average management practices. While every attempt is made to ensure that the cost and price projections are representative, there exists no farmer with costs that exactly coincide with the Extension budgets. This is why farmers are strongly encouraged to individualize budget costs and returns to more accurately represent their own farm operations. -10- (C) Variable input prices and quantities differ by farm. Because grain sorghum silage is high in protein, the protein supplement cost has been reduced compared to a more representative budget, table 2. Also, most cow/calf enterprise budgets do not rely as heavily on silage for feed. (D) Fixed costs are firm specific. The age, condition, whether purchased new or used, and the quantity of fixed assets largely determine fixed costs. In table 2, fixed costs are dominated by opportunity interest on the cow herd (the foregone interest if the herd were sold and the proceeds deposited in a savings account). The tractor and machinery fixed costs level in table 3 of $51.02 suggest that custom hiring of most machinery operations would be preferable to incurring the fixed depreciation, interest and repair costs associated with machinery ownerhship. Both enterprises shown in tables 2-3 have positive returns to land, labor, and management (bottom or tables). The cow/calf return of $17,239 appears large, however, this amount must also cover the time spent managing the operation plus the investment cost of pasture, table 2. The net return in the silage enterprise budget of $170 per acre, before land, labor, and management costs, is very favorable. This indicates that the feed pro- ductivity of this enterprise is quite substantial when valued at $15 per ton, a price believed to be reasonable for the area studied. Finally, note that the full cost of the 662 tons of silage fed to the beef herd has been included as a cost in the beef budget, table 2. This -11- permits the silage budget to in effect, "stand alone." The production of each enterprise is credited to that enterprise. This allocation permits the farmer to identify livestock profits or losses with either the feed production or meat production phase of the operation. The farm planning process (below) incorporates the returns from each enterprise budget (including those in Appendix B) in the development of a "whole farm" plan. THE FARM PLAN The key information necessary to prepare the farm plan includes description of resource availability, resource requirements, and net income above variable costs on an enterprise basis, table 4. This information is then systematically processed into the "plan" itself, with allocation and profit maximization rules, table 5. As indicated in column 1 of table 4, land resources have been cat- egorized as pasture, tillabe, and ponds. Labor periods are based on the timing of cropping procedures. The first period is a relatively slow winter period, while soil preparation and first crop planting traditionally occur during the second period comprising most of February and March. Because of the farmer's preference, the development of catfish production was restricted to 2 acres. The amount of each type of land and the amount of labor (by period) that is available for use on the farm is shown in column 2. With the exception of the bottom line in table 4, columns 3-8 show the resources required for each enterprise by type of land and by labor period. For example, the cow/calf herd is projected to require 120 acres -12- of pasture and 237.5 hours labor in the December to early February period. As would be expected, the heaviest periods of labor for the silage enterprise occur during the two harvests in June and November. The bottom line lists net income after variable costs and fixed machinery costs for each enterprise (a return to land, labor, and management). Machinery fixed costs were included in this study because in a large reorganization of the farm they can be readily changed. The "bottom line" now reflects a return that approximates what the farmer expects at the end of the production period. (Farm plans may also be based on returns after variable costs only.) Because of the greater difficulties in valuing long term assets, there is often less confidence in the estimated size of the fixed (especially when interest expense is included) compared to variable costs.5/ The cow/calf herd was the first enterprise selected for the farm plan, table 5. This decision was based on the following steps: (1) Select the enterprise with the highest maximum net income, based on the total units that can be produced with the farm's resource base. (2) Identify the input that "limits" production of the enterprise. (3) Determine which enterprise provides the highest returns to the limiting input. (4) If this enterprise is that identified in the first step, select this enterprise in the first step, switch the analysis to the newly identified enterprise and begin anew with step 1. 5/Financial leverage issues are particularly important for beginning farmers and expanding farm operations. In the farm analyzed, there is the possibility of financing by the previous owner for the beginning farmer. -13- The beef herd was selected first in table 5 because its maximum income level of $17,239 was higher than the silage enterprise maximum income of $5,965 (i.e., $170.44 per acre times 35 acres), and the beef herd offered the highest return to its limiting input (pasture land). J Double crop silage was the second enterprise selected. Because 319 tons of silage remain to be sold or used after meeting the feed requirements of the beed herd, management must develop a marketing strategy for this unused silage (see table 5, footnote 2). Following inclusion of the channel catfish enterprise, no remaining enterprises entered the farm plan. Pasture and tillable land had been utilized by the beef herd and silage enterprises. The maximum amount of the catfish enterprise had also been included (subject to the 2-acre preference limit of the farmer). The stocker enterprise required 250 hours in labor period one and 298 hours in labor period 6; respectively, only 128 and 237 hours remained available (table 4 vs. table 5). The farmer could have hired additional labor, worked longer hours during the first labor-period, or reduced the size of the stocker enterprise in recognition of the time limit. Because of both personal preference and the intensive labor and management required with the November/December calving period, the decision was made to exclude 6 /The maximum enterprise level is determined by dividing the resource available by the amount required for each enterprise unit, i.e., divide columns 2 by 3 for each of rows 1-10 in table 4. The results for the cow/calf level are I (pasture), 1.6 (first labor period), 2.6 (second labor period), etc. Since the ratio thus obtained shows the maximum amount of the enterprise that can be produced with the respective resource, the smallest ratio is the one that limits the total enterprise size. Pasture proved to be the limiting input, in the case of the beef enterprise. -14- stockers from the farm plan at this time. (It is, however, reassuring to know that feed can be made available if the farmer decides in the future to stocker the steers.) The last row in-table 5 indicates that 200 or more hours of unused labor remain in each of periods 2, 3 and 5. Of the original 2,899 hours of available annual labor, 1,074 (or 37 percent) remain unused. This time can be employed in work for the father-in-law, other farmers, or off-farm work to generate additional income for family consumption, debt repayment, or investment purposes. Such an arrangement would reduce business and financial risk by diversifying family income into a farm component (traditionally with high variability) and a nonfarm component (less var- iable). The level of accumulated net income shown in the last row of column 11, $23,606, is quite substantial for the size of farm considered. This income amount is before fixed costs for land ownership, own labor, and management have been charged. INCOME PROJECTIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE FINANCIAL CONDITIONS The reasonableness of the income projection developed in column 11 of the farm plan, table 5, depends on several critical planning assumptions made by management. A statement of projected cash and noncash income and expense provides financial analysis of the proposed farm organization, table 6. Total gross receipts, primarily due to strong sales from the cow/calf enterprise, are estimated to be $65,746. Cash variable expenses of $26,998 -15- include $7,620 for three annual applications of nitrogen (plus additional amounts of potash, phosphate, and mixed fertilizer) and outlays of approximately $2,000 each for crop fertilization, custom machinery expense, protein supplement, and floating fish feed. Custom machinery expense reflects primarily planting and harvesting costs. It is assumed the farmer will assist with cultivation, spraying, and harvest. Custom hauling and commissions on sales of beef cattle were also substantial. Cash variable expenses do not include the silage feed costs of $9,922, table 2, since silage was produced on the farm. Fixed costs include interest costs associated with machinery, equipment, and buildings ($2,050), the breeding herd investment ($9,150), and land and improvements ($10,600). Total fixed costs are projected to be $25,907. FACTORS AFFECTING PROFITABILITY Several factors affecting projected profitability are analyzed in table 7. Column 3 shows farm income after interest charges for all per- manent assets with the exception of case 7 (the 25 percent equity case). The rates of return shown in column (4) are before interest on breeding livestock, machinery, and real estate to permit consistent comparison among cases. Return to management (column 5) indicates the residual remaining after interest expense and a charge of $7,301 for operator labor opportuni- ty costs. Because labor charges reflect counting and checking cows by family members as well as more skilled beef husbandry tasks, a $4.00 labor cost was utilized rather than the $4.25 shown in the enterprise budgets. The first case in table 7 is based on the income and expense pro- jections in table 6. Note that factors in sections B and C tend to be -16- unique rather than offsetting. For example, there is no opposite price movement in section C, to illustrate the effects of a 15 percent cattle price increase compared to the 15 percent price decline shown in case 2 of section B. The interested reader can estimate the impact of an opposite case effect by reversing the sign of changes between the base case and the alternative case. 7 / The net farm income of $12,841 in the base case is lower than the amount shown in the farm plan, table 5, because of inclusion of all fixed interest costs on land and breeding livestock. The factor most adversely affecting returns was a projected 15 percent decline in beef prices, case (2); no management costs were covered, and the shortfall in own labor costs was a negative $2,923. The heifer price and silage price declines indi- cated in cases (3) and (4) resulted in positive returns to management of, respectively, $1,659 and $3,151. These results are encouraging since the farmer would receive a payment for own labor as well as some payment for the management input. Low conception rates result in net farm income of $8,219, less than a 14 percent return on assets before interest charges, and a minimal $918 return to management. A 2 percentage point increase in interest rates on fixed assets resulted in income above interest of $8,481 and returns to management of $1,180, case (6). In general, the adverse effects of the conditions in Section B do not critically affect performance since interest and own labor costs are 7L/For example, if 15 percent lower beef prices reduce income by $8,463 (case 2 vs. 1, $12,841-$4,378), a 15 percent increase would result in income of $21,304, $8,463 above the base case (other things equal). -17- covered. However, family income is relatively low, and the joint occurrence of two or more of the downside factors would result in an inability to generate income for family consumption needs. Payment of loan principal would not be feasible with the income levels shown in Section B. In this context, the generation of additional farm or off-farm income by the operator and/or spouse would be very helpful. Traditionally, very few farms have had financial leverage approaching the situation in cases (2) through (6), where there is no owner equity in permanent assets. A position of one-fourth equity in the farm assets shown in table 1 increases net farm income from $12,841, the base case, to $18,291, case (7). If the approximately $55,000 equity position in this case is not feasible for the operator, which would be a typical situation for the beginning farmer, case (8) shows that an 8 percent interest rate with a "land contract" on the real estate assets would provide income only about $3,300 less than in the 25 percent equity case. Another alternative to increase family income would be to utilize remaining labor available in the farm plan (table 5) to supplement income from the beef herd. For example, provision of skilled farm labor services to neighboring farmers improved income to $18,211, case (9). The farmer believed that the feed rations in the beef budget were generous. It is possible that good management in combination with an excellent breeding and feeding program may result in increased gain rates. Case (10) indicates the positive effect of higher gains. The last case achieves similar income to the high gain rate case by obtaining cost savings of 15 percent on the non-financial inputs. While income in case -18- (11) is less than two other cases in section C, returns to management are the second highest, $9,590. This is because savings due to cost control in case (11) were credited to management, while the addition of off-farm income in case (9) was not credited to the farm management input. The return levels shown in table 7 would appear to adequately cover all farm related costs and, in most cases, a large share of family living expenses even when there is very little equity in the farm and market rates of interest are charged. However, these results are based on intensive management and cost control. Farmers may not automatically assume their management level will measure up to the standards set in the enterprise budgets. It is also clear that under varying economic conditions the pro- visions of some level of off-farm income is a key to the success of this plan. This is particularly true if both prices and production yields are lower than anticipated in the farm plan. Preliminary validation of the farm plan is discussed in Appendix C. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS This study illustrates the farm planning process for an ongoing opera- tion in the south Alabama-Florida panhandle, and points out the projected viability of an intensive management beef herd based on abundant, home-grown feed supplies. Most of the silage, the most profitable pro- duction unit, is marketed through a high quality beef herd enterprise. The primary strengths of the proposed farm plan are considered to be its profitability and flexibility. The net income level in table 6 and the positive returns to capital, labor, and management shown for most cases in table 7, indicate considerable earnings strength. The presence of sub- -19- stantial equity capital and/or off-farm income from the remaining (unused) labor hours would increase the operation's long run viability. The operation is quite flexible because of very limited machinery and facilities investment, use of custom machinery services for the 35 acres of double-cropped silage, and the presence of large quantities of unused labor and feed (if the remaining silage is not sold). In addition, family members could readily assist with the feeding, moving and "checking" requirements of the herd. The relatively low returns to the catfish enterprise suggest that there would be few adverse effects associated with terminating this enterprise and utilizing the added 315 hours formerly used to raise fish, to expand beef production or off-farm income. Finally, there exists flexibility to use gun irrigation for crop production, should this become necessary. The primary weaknesses of the farm plan are its vulnerability to low beef prices and low beef or feed yields due to management difficulties. A 15 percent decline in all cattle prices would result in a negative return to management. The most important issue, however, is the ability of management "to deliver" on production objectives. In this regard, it is recognized that management on the "home" farm has been successful with livestock and crop enterprises. The returns in this plan are based pri- marily on cost estimates and production objectives developed by experienced management. It is also reassuring that the importance of high conception rates, good daily gain rates, and effective cost control is recognized in the planning process. A "near-miss" on a difficult goal is preferred to attaining an "easy" objective. -20- Each farm situation is unique to the resources available and the abilities and preferences of the farmer. The reader is encouraged to recognize the importance of tailoring Cooperative Extension Service enterprise budgets to the individual costs and yields of each operation. The usefulness of developing sound price and yield projections and ensuring effective cost control for each enterprise cannot be overemphasized. The cost control issue is especially critical given the price/cost squeeze prevalent in current agricultural production. The planning exercise focuses on efficiency, advanced production methods, sound enterprise combinations, flexibility to react to changing economic conditions, and overall excellence in the management of resources. The challenge for the Alabama farmer is to provide efficient cost control, marketing, and production techniques with the aid of effective farm planning. -21- FOOTNOTES 1 /Continuing past production traditions has seldom provided a guarantee of success. In addition to accelerating technological changes in agriculture, farmers currently must contend with widely fluctuating dollar exchange rates, export policies, and interest rates. Future Federal farm programs may be less supportive of income levels. Should this policy change occur, management responsibilities will increase as program controls and government income "buffering" measures in agriculture diminish. 2 /The least acceptable planning method is not to develop and compare projected enterprise costs and sales receipts. It is of critical importance to know which crop and livestock enterprises are responsible for both profits and losses on the farm. 3/The success of expansion through land purchase often critically depends on the timing of the land acquisition. During the late 1970's and early 1980's, aggressive land expansion proved to be less successful than in the early 1970's. Expansion with rented crop or winter grazing land may be currently feasible, however, the preference is to wait until the farm has become better established financially, the transition to the beginning farmer has been made, and the management tools of the beginning farmer have been proven. Also, observe in table 1 that the importance of determining the resource base is readily evident in the planning context. One must know what assets are available in order to decide on their optimal use. -22- 4 /State Cooperative Extension Service budgets are developed to provide general guidelines to the farmer based on above average mangement practices. While every attempt is made to ensure that the cost and price projections are representative, there exists no farmer with costs that exactly coincide with the Extension budgets. This is why farmers are strongly encouraged to individualize budget costs and returns to more accurately represent their own farm operations. 5 /Financial leverage issues are particularly important for beginning farmers and expanding farm operations. In the farm analyzed, there is the possibility of financing by the previous owner for the beginning farmer. 6 /The maximum enterprise level is determined by dividing the resource available by the amount required for each enterprise unit, i.e., divide columns 2 by 3 for each of rows 1-10 in table 4. The results for the cow/calf level are I (pasture), 1.6 (first labor period), 2.6 (second labor period), etc. Since the ratio thus obtained shows the maximum amount of the enterprise that can be produced with the respective resource, the smallest ratio is the one that limits the total enterprise size. Pasture proved to be the limiting input, in the case of the beef enterprise. 7 /For example, if 15 percent lower beef prices reduce income by $8,463 (case 2 vs. 1, $12,841-$4,378), a 15 percent increase would result in income of $21,304, $8,463 above the base case (other things equal). -23- BIBLIOGRAPHY Bobst, B. W. and J. T. Davis. 1984. Prospects for Beef Cattle Supply in the United states and the South. Kentucky Agr. Exp. Sta., So. Coop. Series Bull. 304, Univ. of Kentucky, Lexington. Nowak, C., R. Milligan, W. Knowblauch, and D. Fox. 1983. Profitability and Investment Potential of the Part-Time Beef Cow-Calf Enterprise. Dept. of Agr. Econ., A. E. Res. 83-15, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY. Schwab, G. and E. Gerst. 1976. A Description of Beef Cow/Calf Producers in Six States: Their Enterprise, Motivation, and Sources of Information. Beef Production Reference Manual Foot Sheet 001, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY. U.S. Department of Agriculture. 1984. Economic Indicators of the Farm Sector: Costs of Production, 1983. Economic Research Service, USDA, ECIFS 2-1. Wise, J. 0., A. R. Schupp, and J. R. Conner. 1983. Optimum Beef Cattle and Forage Alternatives for the South. Louisiana Agr. Exp. Sta., So. Coop. Series Bull. 284, Louisiana State Univ. -24- APPENDIX A Simplified Programming Simplified programming is a resource and enterprise allocation process for the farmer to use in selecting the optimal enterprise combination for the specific farm situation. The selected combination of enterprises maximizes the net farm income by allocating limited resources to enterprises with the greatest net return for each unit of that resource. Enterprises initially chosen to be included in the simplified programming process should be limited to no more than seven or eight unless a microcomputer is available to apply the programming routine. Any farmer can apply the simplified programming process to the farm with little expense. Enterprise budgets are the "heart" or basis of the simplified programming process. These budgets consist of estimated prices, yields, and costs. The more accurate these estimates are, the better the planning will be since all simplified programming tables and the final farm plan depend on enterprise budget accuracy. Fine-tuning the enterprise budgets by the individual farmer for the specific farm situation is necessary to obtain the best farm plan solution to resource use. Comparing actual year-end performance to projected performance permits farmers to learn from their errors in projecting costs, yields, and prices. The next year's projections will substantially benefit from this learning process. The simplified programming process includes the following steps: (1) Making a complete inventory of available resources on the farm; -25- (2) determining the long range plans of the farmer; (3) selecting desirable and appropriate enterprises; (4) preparing accurate enterprise budgets for each enterprise to be considered; (5) preparing tables using information gathered on resources, budgets, etc.; and (6) examining the completed farm plan for any evident errors or any unacceptable results. If the farm plan does not look right to the farmer who will be implementing the plan, then adjustments to the enterprise budgets or imposed restrictions that limit the dominance of a particular enterprise or to the available resource base may be necessary to obtain a new, more suitable plan solution. A detailed description and example of the simplified programming process may be found in Circular 232, "Simplified Programming as a Farm Management Tool," written by J. L. Boutwell and E. W. McCoy and published in 1977 by the Agricultural Experiment Station, Auburn University, Alabama 36849. -26- APPENDIX B Enterprise Budget Tables Table I. Potential Enterprises, Projected Permanent Assets and Major Management Objectives Projected permanent assets Potential 1.kiit Unkit Total Major management objectives enterprise item number value value I. Cow/calf Acres bahiagrass pasture Cows : Bratrana/Angus cross Bulls: exotic breed Heifers: replacement Feed wagon (used) Feeding facilities, storage 2. Stockers Feeding facilities 3. Channel catfish 4. Corn/sorghum silIage (double- cropped) 5. Drryl and corn 6. Irrigated corn for grain General Pond acres Tillable acres 1 ' Tillable acres!/ Tillable ac res / Barns (utility) Tractor/loader (used) Pick-up truck (used) Bush hog (used) Scraper blade (used) Acres hcmstead site ?0 $500 $60,000 2 percent max iun death loss 40 550 77,000 95 percent conception rate 3 1,500 4,500 November/December calving 20 500 10,000 Sell heifers as high quality breeding stock 1 1,500 1,500 625 lb. steer weights 1 10,000 10,000 at 300 days 10000 1,000 2.08 lb. daily gain rate To percent maximum death loss 2 400 800 3,500 lbs. fish yield per acre 35 1,200 42,000 16 tons corn silage yield 12 tons sorghum silage yield Custom machinery expense not to exceed $65 per acre, 110 bu. yield 150 bu. yield 1,000 3, 000 2,000 800. 200 400 21,000 3,000 2,000 800 200 1,200 Machinery and buildings repair expense minimized while providing quality maintenance. Total value farm assets 2180003 Value farm house 35,000 Total value permanent assets 253, 003 l/Only 35 acres tillable land were available; thus crop enterprises are substitutes for each crops to be produced and harvested with the custom of machinery services. 12 IL Table 2. Cow-Calf Budget for 140 Cow Herd, Coastat Plains Region of Alabama Wetght Price or Total i ter each Unit Quantt cost/unit amount 1. Gross receipts Steer calves 6.25 cwt, 65.00 $66.00 $26,812,50 BreedIng stock heifers 5.75 cwt, 45.00 75.00 19,406.25 Cull cows 11.5 cwt. 20,00 40.00 9,200.00 Cult bulls 20 cwt,1.00 50.00 1,00000 Total 56,418.75 2, Variable costs Bahtagrass pasture acre 120.00 63.50 7,620.00 Corn/grain sorghum silage ton 661.50 15,00 9,922,50 Protein supplement cwt. 157050 11065 1,834.88 Vet, and med. head 147.00 4.25 624.75 Salt and mInerals cwt, 67.20 8.00 537,60 Custom haulIng head 131.00 2050 327,50 Sales commission dol. 56,418.75 0.03 1,692.56 Bull (replacement) head 1.00 1,500.00 1,500.00 tnt. on oper, cap, dot. 12,029.89 0.13 1,563989 Total variable costs 25,623.67 3. Income above var. costs 27,379058 4. FIxed costs General overhead unit 1.00 750.00 750.00 Bahlagrass pasture acre 120,00 18950 2,220,00 Oppor. Int. on llvestk. cap, dot, 91,500.00 0,10 9,150,00 Oppor. Int. on bid, and equip, dot. 13,500.00 0.10 1,350.00 Depr. on bld.. and equip. dol, 70.77 Other fixed costs on bid, and equip, dot, 15.17 Total fixed costs 13,555.94 5. Total costs 39,179.61 6. Net returns to land labor and management 17,239.14 15%cf . crop wrw wwr Table 3. Silage Enterprise Budget, Corn/sorghum Silage, Double Cropped, Following Recommended Management Practices, Estimated Costs and Returns Per Acre Using 6-Row Equipment, Lower Coastal Plains Region of Alabama Price or Total Item Unit Quantity cost/unit amount 1. Gross receipts Corn silage tons 16,00 $15.00 $240.00 Sorghum silage tons 12.00 15.00 180.00 Total 420.00 2. Variable costs Corn seed lbs. 18.67 1.10 20.54 Sorghum seed lbs. 8.00 0.70 5.60 Fertt zer NItrogen lbs. 250,00 0.13 32.50 Phosphate lbs. 80.00 0.24 19.20 Potash lbs. 80.00 0.14 11.20 Lime (Prorated) tons 0.66 23.00 15.18 Herbicide acre 2.00 8,00 16.00 Insecticide acre 3.00 5.75 17.25 Custom machInery expense dol. 1,00 51.02 51.02 Fuel, oil, lubricants acre 2.00 10.73 21.46 Int. on oper. cap. dol. 104.97 0.13 13.65 Total variable costs 223.59 3. Income above var. costs 196.41 4. Fixed costs General overhead acre 190.00 0.07 13.30 5. Machinery labor costs Preharvest hour 2.29 4.25 9.73 Harvest hour 0.69 4.25 2.93 Total machinery and labor costs 12.67 6. Total costs 249.56 7. Net returns to land Labor and management 170.44 Table 4. Enterprise Resource Situation, Requirements, and Net Income Corn! Corn i rr fg. Resource Cowl sorghum: for corn for enterprise Amount calf Stockers silage grain grain Catfis units available (140 head) (63 head) (1 acre') (1 acre) (1 acre) (1 ace (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) LAND 1. Pasture 2. T IllablIe 3. Ponds LABOR 1. 12/1-2/10 2. 2/11-31/31 3. 4/1-4/30 4. 5/1-6/30 5. 7/1-8/31 6. 9/1-11/30 7. Catfitsh (2 acres) 120.00 35.00 2.00 380.00 407.00 420.00 520.00 540.00 632.00 acres acres acres hours hours hours hours hours hours 120.00 1.00 237.50 158.37 97.90 196.23 205.32 303.85 250,00 153.01 1,*80 17,10 30.59 298,11 0.41 0,86 1.16 3.53 0.33 2.60 1.00 0.60 0.70 1.00 2.30 1.20 1.00 0.60 0.70 1.24 2.50 1.20 1.00 18.00 36,00 61.43 42,00 1.*00 Net returns to land, labor, and management 116.10 96.49 200.83 1,2.1 704 17,239.14 Table 5. The Farm Plan Land acres Labor hours Accumu Resources Pasture Crop Ponds 1 2 3 4 5 6 inc (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) ) Total available 120.00 35,00 2.00 380.00 407.00 420.00 520.00 540.00 632.00 Cow/calf 120.00 0.00 0.00 237.50 158.37 97.90 196.23 205.32 303.85 17, Unused 0000 35.00 2,00 142.50 248.63 322.10 323.77 334.68 328.15 Corn/sorghum silage 0.00 35.00 0.00 14.35 30.10 40.60 123.55 11.55 91.00 5, Unused 0.00 0.00 2.00. 128.15 218.53 281.50 .200.22 323.13 237.15 Catfish 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 36.00 72.00 122.86 84.00 416 Unused 0.00 0.00 0.00 128.15 218.53 24 5.50 128.22 200.27 153.15 23,662 Net income after payment of silage feed costs to the corn/grain sorghum enterprise. A total of 980 tons of silage is produced of which 661.5 fed in cow/calf budget, and the remaining 318.5 tons aesl off the farm. The cash sales of silage depends on the continued availability of .a local market for silage. Usl silage may alternatively be fed to stockers or an expanded beef herd. Anothe option would be to sell grain andrdc silage production. Table 6. Projected Income Statement for Year Ending December 31, 1986, Custom Mach tnery Services and F txed Assets Interest Costs Included I ncome Expen ses Cash Catftsh (7,000 lb.) Steer calves (65 head) Het fer calves (45 head) Cull cows .(20 head) Cull bulls (1 head) Sl'lage (318.5 tons) Total Cash Income $4, 550.00 26,812.50 19,406.25 9,200.00 1, 000.00 4,777.50 65,746.25 Non-cash Income 000 Total Cash & Non-cash Income 65,746.25 Variable costs Seed Ferti li zer Lime Herbicide Insecttctde Custom mach tnery ser. Fuel, oIl, lube, rep. Bah agrass pasture Protein suppIement Vet. & Med. Salt and mtnerals Custom hauling Sales commission Replacement bull Fingerl ings Floating feed Chemicals, catf tsh Mtscel laneous & utt 1. Interest on op. costs Total variable costs 1 F xed costs General overhead Baht agrass pasture Interest payments (@10%) Machinery, eq utp, but ldtngs Breeding herd Land & Improvements DeprecIatIon: mach tnery butldtngs, equip. Total f txed costs Total expenses TOTAL INCOME TOTAL EXPENSES NET INCOME _ . . .. v v . 91499 2,201.5 531. 560. 0 603.7 1,078597 884.3 7, 620.0 1,834.8 624,*7 537,6 327.5 1,69:2,5 1, 500. 0 593.6 2,157o7 130,.0 850.0 1,647.7 26997,8 1,225,5 2,220.0 2, 050.3 9,150.0 10,.600,0 450.3 21.1,0 25, 907,1 52, 904.9 65,74692 52, 904.9 12, 841.*2 Table 7. Effects of Business and Finance Factors on Incane and Profitability Case Ne t fam ncane Factors analyzed (2) Section A: base case I. Base projections Income and expense projections in table 6 Section B: factors negatively affecting incane 3 / 2. Los cattle price Fifteen percent decline in all cattle prices 3. Los heifer price Heifer price projection of $0.80 per pound 4. Los silage price Fifty percent decline in local silage price 5. Los conception rate Ten percent decline in conception rates 6. High interest rates Two percent increase in interest rates on fixed assets (3) 12,841 4,378 8,980 10,452 8,219 8,481 Rate of return before-interest on fixed assets -/ (4) z 15.8 12 14.1 1 4.8 13.8 15.9 Section C: factors positively affecting incane 3 / 7. One fourth equi ty 8. Eight percent land contract 9. 0ff farm income 10. High gain rates Twenty five percent equity position in fixed farm assets Interest of 8 percent charged on real estate assets 1,074 hours available (surplus) labor earning $5.00 per hour Additional 50 pounds gain for steers and heifers at no additional cost 11. Los production costs Fifteen percent savings on variable expense 16,891 l/For the base case, this $9,150 + $0,600 in table return is calculated by adding fixed cash interest costs of $21,800.30 (i.e, $2,050.30 + 8 to net incone of $12,841. This sun, $34,641.30 is then divided by farm asset value in table I, $218,003, to yield a return of 15.89 percent. 2 /Net farm incone (column 3) less opportunity labor costs of $7,301 ($4.00 per hour on 1,825 hours of operator labor used in the farm plan, table 5). 3 /Other assutpi ons are derived f ran the base case, (1) Return to farm masnagement-' (5) 5,540 (2,923) 1,659 3,151 918 1, 180 18,291 14,961 18, 211 16,674 15.9 15.9 15.9 17.6 17,.7 10,990 7, 660 5,540 9,373 9, 590 . .. J Selected Sales and Fitnancita l C haracteritstitcs of Southeastern Farms witth Beef Sales Greater Than $1,000, 1984 Characteristi(c Farmers _repor tn 1. Beef sales ($), Percenttl e range 2. Total farm sales ($) 3.. Net farm cashf l ow ($) 4. Total farm and non- farm net cashf low ($) 5. Rate of return to farm assets 6. Farm debt ($) 5 1,2 00 1, 450 -57,582 --22.4 10 1, 550 1,600 -27,873 -10.7 0 25 2, 000 50 4 ,076 3,900 10,867 --7, 709 -1,686 5.2 -.o7 75 79,667 72,750 7,353 1.9 0 38,000 90 180,000 95 30,102 218, 000 344,150 41,233 80,634 11 14 125,000 305,000 Source: Farm Costs and Returns Survey., 1984, Economic Research USDA. Survey date from Alabama, Georgia, Nort Carolina, and South Carolina. Sample farmers were selected on a probablistic basis and table percentiles are a survey expansion to represent approximately 24 thousand farms meeting the minimum beef sale requirement. T was conducted with personal tnterviews in the spring of 1985. , ~r~' 4U13 UI IUIV~l IWU ~ l ~ l u v